Donald Trump's chances of winning are higher now than they were on the day of the Joe Biden debate

According to betting website Polymarket, Donald Trump's chances of winning a second term in the White House are now better than they were on June 27 before his crucial debate against Joe Biden.

As of 4:20 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Polymarket gave Trump a 64.3 percent chance of winning in November, well ahead of Democratic rival Kamala Harris's 35.7 percent. The GOP candidate's odds of winning are now higher than they were at 1 a.m. ET on June 27, just hours before the Biden debate in Georgia, when they stood at 60 percent versus 34 percent for the incumbent president, according to Polymarket.

Biden struggled during the June 28 debate against Trump, at times appearing to lose his train of thought mid-sentence. The debate sparked a renewed focus on the age and mental capacity of the 81-year-old Biden, leading to intense pressure within his own party on the then-presumptive Democratic nominee. On July 21, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race and offered his support to Harris, his running mate, who quickly became her party's presumptive nominee.

Notably, according to Polymarket, Trump's chances have improved significantly over the course of this month, with Harris actually ahead on October 1 with a 50 percent chance of winning, versus 49 percent for the Republican candidate. Polymarket offers real-time betting on various topics and claims to be “the world’s largest prediction market.” Newsweek contacted the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris via email outside of regular office hours on Tuesday for comment.

In addition to predicting that Trump will win nationally, Polymarket also names Trump as the favorite to win in the seven key swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In 2020, Biden won all of these states except North Carolina.

According to Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning in November were 60 percent in Nevada, 72 percent in Arizona, 70 percent in Georgia, 68 percent in North Carolina, 61 percent in Pennsylvania, 59 percent in Michigan and 57 percent in Wisconsin 5 :45 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Election website FiveThirtyEight's latest analysis of recent polls, released Monday, showed Harris had a 1.8 percentage point lead in the statewide vote with 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.4 percent. That was down from a 2.4 percentage point lead for the vice president on Oct. 14, when Harris received 48.5 percent of the vote versus 46.1 percent for the Republican nominee. Because of the Electoral College system, Trump could lose the popular vote in November but still win overall, as he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

In its latest analysis, based more on polls than betting, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 51 percent chance of winning next month versus 49 percent for Harris. That model was released Monday and also found that the odds of there being no Electoral College winner are “less than 1 in 100.”

Millions of voters have already cast their votes through early voting. Preliminary polls show that Harris has a clear lead over Trump among current voters.

However, this is not necessarily indicative of a broader trend, as Democratic voters tend to vote earlier than Republicans, while Trump has previously argued that mail-in ballots lead to voter fraud, although that claim has been rejected by relevant authorities.