Election 2024: Could Trump win Nevada?

The Explained today The podcast takes an in-depth look at the key issues of the 2024 election from the perspective of seven battleground states. We have heard from voters so far Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, WisconsinAnd North Carolinaand this week we turn to Nevada, where the economy is the top concern for voters.

As Election Day approaches, the economy remains top of mind for voters — but perhaps nowhere more so than in Nevada, which has faced more than its fair share of economic headwinds over the past four years.

The Silver State has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country at 5.6 percent, housing costs are skyrocketing and food is among the most expensive in the country. Las Vegas, the state's economic engine, is still reeling from pandemic-related shutdowns and loss of tourism and has an unemployment rate of 5.9 percent.

When Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump pitch their economic plans to voters, it can feel like they're speaking directly to Nevadans. And for good reason — Nevada's six electoral votes, which narrowly went for President Joe Biden in 2020, could play a crucial role in the outcome of this election.

Nevada will also play a role in deciding control of the U.S. Senate as incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen faces Republican challenger Sam Brown in a crucial race.

To understand the economic concerns of Nevada voters and get an early sense of where the state's electoral headwinds are blowing, Explained today Host Sean Rameswaram spoke with Jon Ralston, CEO and publisher of the nonprofit news organization Nevada Independent, the only statewide news outlet in Nevada.

Ralston has earned a reputation for tracking detailed early voting data and accurately predicting Nevada's presidential election in the last three presidential elections.

Below is an excerpt from the conversation, edited for length and clarity. There's a lot more in the full podcast, so give that a listen Explained today Wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

They have a reputation for calling things like this in Nevada. What does it look like, a week later?

I'm pretty good at predicting, but I don't do it a week or two in advance. I'm doing it three days before the election. We don't have enough data to make a real prediction yet, but Republicans are looking better than ever in the first count. On the other hand, we have only recently become a predominantly mail-in voting state. So there's an assumption that younger voters will vote later and that all independents – and there are an explosion of them in Nevada – will go the Democratic way. So the Democrats haven't given up yet, but I think they're worried.

How important is Nevada in the 2024 presidential election based solely on the way the two candidates campaigned?

We are one of the few embattled states. We don't have as many votes as Pennsylvania, but we are a mirror image of the country demographically. Las Vegas is a demographic melting pot (with) a very large Hispanic population, a sizable Asian and African American population, and a service economy that is both good for Democrats and good for Trump, who likes to say, “I love the less educated.”

What worries the poorly educated out there most this election season?

Well, I wouldn't call her that. But what worries them most is what they worry most about everywhere else: the economy. We have been disproportionately beaten down by Covid. The Las Vegas Strip, Nevada's economic engine, was closed for a few months. Many people have lost their jobs. Unemployment was up to 30 percent. And although the unemployment rate has fallen sharply, it is now around 5 percent – ​​still one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

But the complement to this is housing. People are having difficulty buying houses, renting houses or renting apartments. And there's still an eviction hangover. The laws here favor landlords. There's a process called summary eviction that Democrats have tried to change and that affects many lower-income voters.

And when you look at the economic plans or policy proposals that these two candidates are pushing, you almost feel like they're talking directly to Nevada voters, right?

It looks like both campaigns woke up a few weeks ago and saw the numbers that showed housing was a big problem. And so Trump essentially joined the Republican governor here in saying they just need to release more federal land. It's just a question of supply and demand. 87 percent of Nevada is federal land, so that's a solution. And Harris has used more traditional Democratic rhetoric about helping people get into their homes and making sure people stay in their homes. But none of them really provided much detail.

What about the plans that are more income-focused, for example? I know we have “no taxes on tips” — that’s what both candidates are proposing — which feels like a Nevada thing, a Vegas thing, a service industry thing.

Trump says that a waitress – whether real or mythical, it's always hard to say – said (to him), 'Can you do something about it?' Whether that happened or not, I don't know. But I think in terms of a political favor, it's a pretty smart move by the Trump campaign. They suddenly publish this. They've even gone so far as to post memes online asking people to sign their checks: “No taxes on tips.”

The Harris campaign originally denigrated this, but later jumped on it and said it was a great idea. And suddenly our Democratic senators and Congress are on board. Has this tipped in favor of Trump? I don't know. But I'll tell you this: In an election that could be very close – some people think it could be as close as 5 or 10,000 votes out of about 1.3 or 4 million votes cast – every little bit can make a difference , and that works. It's hard to say what the problem was.

If Trump actually succeeds and wins Nevada, what do you think that will have said about his campaign and his appeal (this year) when he lost there in 2016 and 2020?

But he didn't lose much. He lost by two and a half points. That would mean the state has changed that for the first time in two decades. In 2022 we elected a Republican governor. (If Trump wins the state), Republicans will say they have a chance in Nevada, that the so-called Harry Reid machine is not all-powerful, that it can be beaten in a presidential race. All these things are said.

And if Harris wins, that means the opposite will be true, that this will still be the Harry Reid State, the machine that Harry built.

I think the narrative will be that even in difficult economic times, even in times where the demographics seem to have shifted a little to the right, the machine still knows how to get its voters to vote, be it through early voting in person or by absentee voting on ballots or on Election Day, just enough to keep the state in Democratic hands in every cycle since 2008.

Do you think there are a lot of voters in Nevada who are still trying to figure this out, who are still undecided, people who we know will come to vote on the fifth but are still waiting to hear more from to listen to them? these candidates? And if so, what do you think will push them in one direction or the other?

Who are these people who can be undecided in this race at this point, right? Most polls show about 5 percent are undecided. Some polls show it at 7 or 8 percent. And that's why I think every little bit can matter. Will these service members, these blue-collar workers who were called “Reagan Democrats” back when I started covering politics, go for Trump?

Are these plans, such as “no tax on tips”, more housing, the release of federal land, a breakthrough?

If this is a very close race, which it could be, it will be very difficult to determine the turning point.