Electoral support for California: Polls show shift away from progressive measures

California voters appear poised to reject several progressive ballot measures this November, signaling a shift in the state's liberal stance that could have a negative impact on voting in Congress and reflect poorly on Gavin Newsom, the lame-duck governor, who is said to be targeting the White House.

There are five citizen initiatives and five constitutional amendments up for vote in California this year. The state is known for its roots in direct democracy, which makes it relatively easy for a citizen or interest group to collect enough signatures to get their initiative on the ballot.

This year, voters will also decide on issues ranging from LGBTQ+ rights to criminal justice reform in the same ballot as the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris, who began her political career in the Golden State, and former President Donald Trump.

A new statewide poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) suggests that voters in the Democratic stronghold disagree with some of the progressive electoral policies.

The poll did not indicate a major Republican surge in the state, which Trump is almost certain to lose by a large majority. In the PPIC poll, Harris led Trump by 26 points (59 percent to 33 percent), just shy of President Biden's 29th victory in the state four years earlier. Given the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 points, the difference may be even smaller. The two candidates remain razor-thin apart across the country and in key battlegrounds.

But the poll found that some Democrats and independents who support Harris for president will vote against liberal ballot measures on the economy and criminal justice reform.

Mark Baldassare, PPIC's national survey director, said Newsweek On Thursday, he noted that while some of the poll's results were surprising, the makeup of California allows these ballot measures to garner support that some would not expect to match California's progressive reputation. Four in 10 Californians identify as liberal, while three in 10 each identify as moderate and conservative, he said.

“There are very different outcomes for government proposals that could necessarily be described as democratic,” he said. “Most Californians are liberal on social and environmental issues and more conservative on law and order and tax issues.”

Two economic proposals are lagging in support, according to the survey. Proposition 32, which would raise the federal minimum wage to $18 an hour, is supported by only 44 percent of likely voters, compared to 54 percent of voters who plan to vote against it.

Even a narrow majority of Democrats – 51 to 47 percent – ​​plan to reject the minimum wage referendum, according to the survey.

Baldassare pointed out that polls show that more voters support raising the minimum wage when, in theory, they are asked about the issue. But the election campaign raised concerns about how the proposal would affect the cost of living and inflation, which has been a major campaign issue throughout the year even as the inflation rate has fallen in recent years.

Meanwhile, only 42 percent of respondents said they planned to support Proposition 33, which would allow local governments to implement rent control. 54 percent said they would vote against the proposal.

The most well-known ballot measure is Proposition 36, which imposes tougher penalties for certain drug and theft offenses, including mandatory treatment for repeat offenders. Prop 36 received the most support from voters — 73 percent plan to vote for it, while just 25 percent oppose it, the poll found.

These numbers were achieved despite strong opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom has linked the tough-on-crime measure to a return to the days of the war on drugs started by Richard Nixon. Still, voters don't seem convinced.

Proposition 6, which would eliminate a constitutional provision allowing “involuntary servitude for incarcerated persons” — essentially a ban on forced labor in prisons — was also met negatively by survey respondents. 41 percent said they plan to vote in favor, while 56 percent said they would vote against.

This is perhaps the most striking result of the survey, considering that there are no major groups fighting against the forced labor referendum and things are still going up.

Still, voters support progressive policies in other areas. The poll found broad support for Proposition 3, a constitutional amendment that would enshrine marriage rights for same-sex couples in the state constitution. 67 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for it, while 32 percent said they opposed the amendment.

Proposition 4, which would allow $10 billion in climate and environmental bonds, is supported by most voters – 54 percent said they want to support it, while 42 percent are opposed, the poll said.

The survey surveyed 1,646 Californians from October 7th to 15th.

The Californian's embrace of more moderate policies on these tax and criminal justice issues reflects a shift by Harris toward the center as she tries to win over moderate and undecided voters in key battlegrounds.

While Harris has developed a reputation as a more liberal senator, she has turned to more middle-of-the-road rhetoric on the campaign trail, emphasizing her work as a prosecutor, support for small businesses and her foreign policy credentials.

Surveys like this could contribute to that shift, Baldassare said.

“There's a sense that in California and elsewhere there are a lot of voters in the middle of the political spectrum who look at things from an issue perspective and not necessarily from a partisan policy perspective,” he said.

“These are exactly the voters seeking presidential candidates at a time when the nation is deeply divided.”

According to Baldassare, these voting measures could also have an impact on the race for control of Congress.

Republicans currently have a slim majority in the House of Representatives – 220 seats compared to Democrats' 212 seats. According to the Cook Political Report, Democrats' path to flipping the House passes through just a few states, including California, where there are at least seven competitive races.

“Some candidates running in competitive districts across the state or elsewhere may give them reason to think about supporting proposals favored by the party,” Baldassare said, pointing out that Democratic candidates running in competitive elections might choose to stay in the middle on issues where they see voters doing the same.

Update 10/125/24 4:45 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to correct a typo.