Elon Musk presents his new “Robovan”.

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CNN
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Thursday unveiled his vision of a “fun, exciting future,” an “age of plenty” full of self-driving cars without steering wheels, parking lots turned into parks and robots walking among the population – from which he again promised that it would be available within a few years.

Whether he can keep these promises remains to be seen.

Those plans and the unveiling of designs for its robotaxis came at a glitzy event in California that was filled with hype that has helped Tesla (TSLA) build a loyal fan base for its electric vehicles. The event featured robotaxis models as well as a Robovan, a driverless vehicle designed to transport a large group of people or objects.

The designs were heavily influenced by a metallic, shiny future science fiction aesthetic. Musk himself even referenced the classic sci-fi film Blade Runner, although he said his version of the coming years should be happier than that dystopian noir film.

Musk is known for his promising short-term goals that will take years or longer to achieve. He predicted five years ago that his robotaxi fleet would be just a year away. During his presentation on the Warner Bros. studio lot late Thursday, even he admitted, “I tend to be a little optimistic about the timeline.”

The event to launch these products, which was livestreamed to millions of viewers on its social media platform X, began 53 minutes late.

But the delay hardly seemed to matter to the spectators present the chance to ride in the 50 self-driving vehicles that roamed the studio lot. They continued to cheer Musk throughout his relatively short 20-minute presentation.

Tesla has long offered “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) as an option for its cars, which currently costs $8,000. Despite the name, Tesla says that even in FSD mode, drivers must still be in the driver's seat and ready to take control of the vehicle.

Musk said Thursday that Teslas with FSD could be deployed without human intervention anywhere government regulators allow it, predicting that will be the case in California and Texas next year. And he also introduced the Cybercab, a vehicle without a steering wheel, accelerator or brake pedals, designed specifically to carry passengers without a driver present, which he said will be in production by 2026.

“It will be like sitting in a cozy little lounge,” he said. “Yeah, it’s going to be great.”

He said that unlike other electric vehicles, the Robocab did not have a plug but was charged by driving via a charging plate. And he also showed off a larger vehicle that he said could carry up to 20 passengers or goods, which he called the “Robovan,” although he didn't give a time frame for that vehicle's launch.

Musk has insisted that the company's data shows that FSD is already safer than human-driven cars. But others who have tested this feature question whether this is true. An independent testing service, AMCI Testing, found that drivers had to take control every 13 miles on average.

This certainly isn't the first time Musk has laid out ambitious timelines for his self-driving car plans. In a call with investors in July, Musk said he expected to have “unsupervised (driving)” possibly by the end of this year, adding: “I would be shocked if we didn't get it done next year.”

But he also admitted: “Obviously my forecasts on this in the past were too optimistic.”

“I am the boy who cried FSD. But I think we will be better than humans by the end of this year,” he said in a call with investors in July 2023, adding: “I have been wrong in the past. This time I may be wrong.”

And even some analysts who believe Tesla will eventually develop the technology needed for driverless vehicles to carry passengers believe that success is at least several years in the future.

“We expect shutdowns to occur in 3% of miles driven,” Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said in an interview with CNN earlier this week about the frequency with which a human driver must take control .

“While 97% of the way there sounds close, it’s not even close. It must be well above 99%. And going from 95 or 97% to 99% is really hard. And then there's the question of how many nines regulators want to see. Is it 99.9%, 99.999%?” he added.

“I think it will take two years to get the technology right,” Munster said. “And another two to three years to obtain the necessary regulatory approval.”

This story has been updated with additional context and developments.