Fantasy Football: What the story tells us about Jauan Jennings' monster Week 3 breakout

Jauan Jennings wasn't on the radar at the start of the fantasy football season. He was the presumptive WR3 on a team with two superstar wideouts and a star tight end, and the 49ers also drafted another receiver in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Jennings received a modest contract extension due to his familiarity with the offense and plus-blocking ability. There was no need for Jennings debates all summer.

But man, we need one now. Jennings forced the issue with his spectacular play against the Rams, posting a monstrous 11-175-3 record last Sunday in Los Angeles.

Baseball statistics legend Bill James pioneered a concept called signature significance. The crux of the matter is that while statisticians prefer large samples before drawing firm conclusions, there may be rare cases where a performance represents such a significant outlier that it can obviate the need to gather more evidence. If a nameless rookie pitcher throws a no-hitter with 16 strikeouts on a random Thursday, it's likely that pitcher has a special talent. Ordinary players are rarely capable of such greatness, even when taking randomness and variance into account.

So we're wondering: Did Jennings reach a Signature Significance level with his amazing Week 3 performance?

The History of WR “Boom” Games

My first step in answering this question was to look at the historical context. Jennings scored 46.5 points in full-point PPR leagues last week, tied for the 37th-best WR mark in the modern fantasy era (2000-present; thanks to Pro-Football-Reference for the data). The other names on this list are a collection of superstars and very good players.

Jimmy Smith, a Hall of Very Good receiver, is at the top of the list. And you'll find a lot of Hall of Famers (or likely future Hall of Famers) on that search: Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Terrell Owens, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans. Even if we look beyond the Gold Jacket stars, we see a number of familiar names who have been reliable fantasy options, guys like Will Fuller and Alshon Jeffrey, Eric Decker and Amani Toomer, Chad Johnson and Wes Welker. Even some of the Comet players, the flash and fade guys, were funny. Dwayne Bowe had this one magical season. Josh Gordon was a superstar for a moment. Miles Austin could play.

Who are the “worst” players on this list? Kevin Curtis and Drew Bennett, I guess. Kenny Britt. These are all fantasy players that I trusted at some point. Britt had a quasi-disappointing career and still had a WR22 season and another WR27 finish. Curtis peaked at WR14. Bennett was WR7 the year he and Billy Volek made magic. What a time to be alive.

To be fair, all of the historic receivers I've collected here had better games than Jennings. For the sake of balance, we need to consider some of the great performances that fell somewhat short of Jennings. And I was encouraged that most of the next 40 names were still of similar star quality to the players at the top of the page. The only big surprise players on this list would be Albert Connell, Brian Hartline (now Ohio State's receiver guru) and David Patten. If you slide a little deeper, Chase Claypool and Marty Booker appear.

If Jennings were to become something similar to the players in the paragraph above, fantasy managers would probably be happy to accept that. And who knows – maybe he will be able to do even better.

Maybe history isn't your thing. Let's focus on what we know. Jennings is paired with an exciting play-caller (Kyle Shahanan), a good quarterback (Brock Purdy) and good infrastructure. The 49ers currently have a number of high-profile players injured, including Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. No one knows when CMC might return to play, and while Kittle and Samuel could return quickly, we have to worry about the injury aggravating. Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall is not in the picture yet.

Jennings' band review supports his breakthrough playing. Sure, the Rams' secondary dropped assignments here and there — especially on the first touchdown — but Jennings won with a variety of routes, and Purdy showed a willingness to throw the ball to Jennings in tight windows. There is trust and relationship here.

Nothing in this article constitutes “proof” of Jauan Jennings, but “waiting for evidence” is a dead fantasy strategy. We have to weigh up what is possible. Jennings certainly has the potential to maintain fantasy relevance as the season continues; it offers plausible advantages. That's good enough for me. Put him on the proactive starting list for Week 4 and grant him Circle of Trust privileges for now. Of course there are no guarantees, but I would rather see him in your squad than your opponent's.

All statistics and player rankings used in this article come from Pro-Football Reference.