FPI updates BYU's projected win total and conference title chances

After a non-dramatic win over UCF, BYU is 8-0, one of only two undefeated teams in the Big 12. BYU gets a week off before facing arch-rival Utah on November 9th. Following BYU's victory over UCF, ESPN FPI updated BYU's projected win total for the 2024 season and BYU's conference title hopes.

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU exceeded that prediction in five games. Now FPI projects BYU to be 10.7-1.3. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

Compared to last season, BYU's odds of winning increased with each remaining game on the schedule, according to FPI.

For the purposes of this article, we define a “special season” as 11 or more wins in the regular season. Winning 11 games appears to be the minimum requirement for participation in the Big 12 Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff this year. FPI gives BYU a 60.9% chance of winning 11 or more games and a 19.9% ​​chance of remaining undefeated.

8 wins or more – 100%
9 wins or more – 99.3%
10 wins or more – 90.7%
11 wins or more – 60.9%
12 wins (undefeated) – 19.9%

BYU improved three spots in the FPI rankings to 27th after beating UCF. Kansas State, which beat Kansas last night, is the top-ranked team in the Big 12. The Cougars are ranked 4th out of 16 Big 12 teams.

After an 8-0 start, BYU has a 32.2% chance of winning the Big 12, according to FPI. Here are the teams with the best chance of winning the conference according to FPI.

There are actually only four teams with a real chance of winning the conference: Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State and Colorado.

Since BYU has a strong record, the Cougars have a good chance of securing major success if they get 10 or more wins. According to FPI, BYU has a 57.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff. These are the best chances in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best chances to reach the College Football Playoff, according to FPI.