Harris and Trump's swing state strategies for the final phase

In the final stretch of an extremely close presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are taking aim at people's fears as they storm across the country to claim victories in seven battleground states where polls show razor-thin results.

Trump, who has issued dire warnings about crime and border security since the 2024 campaign began, has more recently poured millions of dollars into a barrage of swing-state ads designed to – and play on – terrify transgender people This refers to the idea of ​​Harris, a long-time supporter of the LGBTQ+ community, being a “woke” Californian and too progressive to be president.

Harris, who has raised concerns about Trump's suitability for office for months, has sharpened his messaging about his penchant for dictatorial speech, his election denial and role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection, as well as warnings from several of his own former military advisers that it poses a threat to national security.

The fear-based messages have permeated campaign advertising in swing states, where voters in previous presidential elections faced messages on regional issues such as agriculture or manufacturing.

“Politics has become so nationalized right now that some of these more detailed policies are not emerging as frequently as one would have expected in years past,” said Robert Alexander, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University in Ohio Author of the 2019 book “Representation and the Electoral College.”

“Everything is upside down,” Alexander said. “There are so many people who are just frustrated with the world, period, and they think, 'Where am I supposed to go?'”

This uncertainty is reflected in the tight margins on the battlefields and in the campaigns' strategies for the final push until November 5th. Neither major party candidate chose to bet on a single possible path to victory on the electoral map, with both instead opting to use their considerable campaign resources to play the entire field.

Charlie Gerow, a longtime Republican strategist and political consultant in Pennsylvania, said the result has been an extremely intense election cycle in the so-called blue wall battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as the Sunbelt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

“There were so many ads that it’s hard to keep track,” Gerow said. “We were inundated in ways I couldn’t even imagine.”

Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign's battleground states director, said in a recent statement that Harris still has “multiple paths” to reaching 270 electoral votes.

“All seven contested states are in play, and we know that each will be incredibly close to each other,” Kallinen said.

Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said in a statement that Trump held multiple campaign events per day and that he would “visit every battleground state at least once” in the final weeks of the race.

“We have a broad and diverse coalition of a united GOP, disaffected Democrats and independents, and we all know that President Trump's common-sense agenda resonates with working men and women,” Hughes said.

Both Harris and Trump are conducting the typical October campaign, telling voters in big cities and rural areas alike that they care about their concerns and will advocate for their interests in the White House. But they also focus on messages that address national issues and the general fears many Americans have about the nation's future.

Harris is seeking to solidify her support in communities of color but also win over more moderate Republicans to her cause. She has appeared alongside Democrats like former President Obama and prominent Republican renegades like Liz Cheney to represent Trump as a unique threat to democracy, reproductive health care and the working class.

Harris has argued that Trump will implement the ultra-conservative policies of Project 2025 and prioritize tax breaks for the rich. She accused him of being easily manipulated and goaded by world leaders and dictators and of being a would-be dictator himself.

She planned to march with Beyoncé in Texas on Friday for reproductive health rights. The red state is not a presidential battleground, but the Harris campaign called it “ground zero” for the kind of abortion restrictions that have exploded since the U.S. Supreme Court – including three Trump appointees – passed longstanding legal protections for them in 2022 has abolished such procedures.

Harris had planned to be in Michigan with Michelle Obama on Saturday and be back in Pennsylvania on Sunday.

Next Tuesday, Harris is scheduled to make a “closing statement” for her campaign on the National Mall in Washington, DC, near where Trump rallied the mob that attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, for certification by Joe Biden to stop election. A senior Harris campaign official said the event was meant to be symbolic – to illustrate the real choice facing voters.

Trump, counting on his fervent base to turn out for him no matter what, is hoping that widespread economic frustration and fears about immigration and border security will give him the extra votes he needs to win. His campaign focused on the simple message that Americans are worse off than they were four years ago, although he created a distraction by going off-script in bizarre ways – including his recent remark about the late Arnold Palmer's genitals.

Trump has argued that Harris will usher in a dangerously progressive, California-style agenda that will pander to immigrants and ruin the economy. He has sought to link Harris to high inflation and failures along the southern border during the Biden administration and to portray Harris as weak on the international stage.

The Republican is scheduled to give a speech on migrant crime in Texas on Friday and campaign at rallies in Michigan later on Friday and Saturday.

On Sunday, Trump is planning a large rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City. New York is blue and not a swing state either – but an event at the famous venue promises major media coverage for Trump that will reach the swing states.

In addition to the two main candidates, hordes of their deputies are also streaming through the country – including their vice presidential candidates. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris' running mate, and Senator JD Vance of Ohio, Trump's running mate, have traveled the country as often as Harris and Trump.

The two campaigns' rigorous travel schedules are due in part to the complete unpredictability of the race – and the extreme proximity of elections in many states.

“In an election where the seven battleground states are all within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only reliable forecast,” Nate Silver, founder and former editor of FiveThirtyEight, began in an article for the New York on Wednesday Times — before writing that his own “gut feeling” told him that Trump was likely to win, but added that voters “should not place any value on anyone's gut feeling” — including Silver's.

Gerow, the Republican strategist in Pennsylvania, said he has “always been very optimistic” about Trump's chances of winning the state and therefore the entire race, but never as optimistic as he is now. He said most people he talks to will vote for Trump, even Democrats who don't like Trump – who he said tell him things like, “I think the guy is an a—- –, but I'm voting for him.”

Keneshia Grant, an associate professor of political science at Howard University, said she thinks the current poll “likely underestimated the potential excitement around Harris as a black candidate.”

Grant, author of “The Great Migration and the Democratic Party: Black Voters and the Realignment of American Politics in the 20th Century,” said researchers have long noted problems with polls in state and national elections that place black candidates on the Ballots stood The same thing could happen with Harris, the first Black woman and Asian American to ever win a major party ticket.

“The campaigns act based on what they understand about the state of the world,” Grant said. “But I just worry or wonder if the state of the world is what we think.”

Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said both Harris and Trump would act relatively predictably in this final phase. Harris clearly believes there are some “accessible Republican voters” out there and is pursuing them. Trump exudes confidence, but also runs his campaign aggressively and “doesn’t treat it like it’s in his pocket.”

Both candidates are still looking for the perfect message – that “silver bullet” – that will tip the race decisively in their favor, but neither has found it yet, Kondik said.

“Perhaps it will be very close until the end,” he said, “and overall very close.”