Harris team, some Trump allies assume he will declare victory early

Vice President Kamala Harris, her campaign team and some of Donald Trump's own allies expect the former president to quickly declare his victory on election night – even if the result is not yet clear in key swing states.

Because of the time it takes to process mail-in ballots and to process provisional ballots in some battleground states, votes will not be fully counted on election night. Predictions about who will win a close presidential race may not be revealed for days, similar to the 2020 election.

NBC News spoke with four Trump allies, all of whom speculated that the former president might be ready to repeat 2020 and quickly declare him the winner on election night, when that is not yet certain. All sources said they had no direct knowledge that this was a formal Trump campaign plan.

Others noted that this November could be different because he is surrounded by a new group of senior advisers who would not pressure him to make such a statement.

Seven Harris aides – and the vice president herself – said they were making preparations if Trump did indeed prematurely declare his victory or challenge the results in court if he lost.

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

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Such a move could signal to Trump's supporters that he has won and raise skepticism that any votes received after Election Day are illegitimate and evidence of unproven fraud.

“Of course,” Harris said in an interview with NBC News on Tuesday when asked if her campaign was preparing to deal with Trump declaring an early victory. “This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to overturn a free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people, who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and assaulted 140 police officers .”

“100%,” said a former Trump adviser when asked what the likelihood was that the former president would prematurely say he won. “Hm! Is the Pope Catholic? There are few things in politics that I think you can make a firm bet on. This is one of them.”

An early declaration of victory could be facilitated by a so-called “red mirage”. That happens when Republicans appear to have a lead on election night because in-person votes are generally counted quickly — but that lead could disappear in the days after Nov. 5 as mail-in and early ballots are counted.

In 2020, Trump quickly declared victory on election night, even though he ultimately lost to Joe Biden.

A longtime Republican and Trump supporter said when they talk to other Republicans, there is a widespread belief that the former president will definitely win on election night.

“I heard this from about ten different people,” the person said, making it clear that he had no direct knowledge of Trump’s plans. “Because of the way things are counted, it’s probably impossible for Democrats to be ahead on election night in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

“He will be able to take advantage of what Democrats called the 'red mirage' in 2020,” added this person, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Trump still has doubts about the 2020 election, and the false notion that it was stolen from him by Democratic fraud has been a rallying cry for his supporters throughout the campaign. He continues to spread the false narrative that non-citizens will vote in the 2024 election, which tips the balance against him.

Aside from the fact that Trump has pursued a similar strategy in the past, the likelihood of a “red mirage” is increased by the fact that key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia are only beginning to count mail-in ballots the election start day.

“That window of time between polls closing and elections being called has, I think, proven to be a real vulnerability that people who want to undermine confidence in these results if they lose have really exploited,” said Al Schmidt, D-Pennsylvania top election official said on CBS' “60 Minutes” earlier this month.

Harris and other Democrats have sounded alarm bells about the possibility of Trump declaring an early election victory, but even Republican supporters of the former president expect his campaign to consider the move.

“There is no part of me that doesn’t think this is part of the conversation,” said a Trump donor in the key swing state of North Carolina. “We’ve seen him do it before, and if he’s there on election night, I think his campaign will — perhaps wisely — try it again.”

Others believe Trump has more to think about and has different voices in his ear than in 2020 and that multiple factors are being taken into account.

“Last time he was hired by Rudy Giuliani,” a former Trump adviser said, citing the former New York mayor’s role in spreading election conspiracy theories as Trump’s lawyer after the 2020 election. “That’s not going to happen. So who’s going to put it together this time?”

The person said top campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita would not do that, and there is a feeling among Republican supporters that his team of close advisers will try to squelch any attempt to allow Trump to win if he doesn't Clearly he won.

A lawyer who worked for Trump in both 2016 and 2020 said a key indicator will be the type of lawyers he has around him in the final days of the campaign, on election night and beyond. Those who have a good reputation and work for well-known law firms are less likely to jeopardize their reputation through political machinations.

“You have to keep an eye on what the lawyers will end up seeing around you. I was there with him for two cycles,” the former Trump lawyer said. “The difference in lawyers was incredible. It was night and day, the difference between 2016, when he had the best law firms and lawyers in the country, and 2020.'”

Roger Stone, a longtime Trump ally who continues to advise him on policy, says there have been examples in the past of presidential advisers urging candidates to declare early victory, including James Baker and George W. Bush in 2000 and Joseph Kennedy, who told his son John F. Kennedy, made a similar move in 1960.

In documentary footage from election night in 2020, Stone is seen on tape advising Trump to declare victory even if the results are in doubt.

“I suspect it will be, I really suspect it will be up in the air,” Stone said at the time. “When that happens, the most important thing is to win. Possession is nine-tenths of the law. Now we win, f— you.”

“When I said it in 2020, I was accused of saying that Trump should declare victory even if he 'loses,' which is not remotely what I said,” Stone told NBC News. He did not indicate whether he was urging Trump to claim an early victory this year.

He added that he was simply following a well-trodden path taken by the president's previous advisers. The comment was turned into evidence by the House committee on January 6, 2022, seeking to show that Trump was quick to claim that he had defeated Biden.

Harris aides told NBC News that not only do they expect Trump to win on election night even if the result remains in doubt – or will challenge the results in court if he loses – but they are also actively campaigning for it plan for this scenario.

“There is no one on the campaign trail who believes the election will take place on Election Day,” said one longtime adviser.

Campaign officials have instead prepared for results to be announced within days of Election Day, but the big question will be whether a legal challenge will ultimately decide the election. To that end, the Harris campaign has assembled a team of lawyers to fight off Trump lawyers if the former president loses but then tries to overturn the results in court.

Even her own team doesn't expect Harris to talk during the campaign about the fact that the courts could end up deciding the election because they don't want to depress voters with the idea that their votes could end up being one of them Trump-sympathizing judges thrown out.

“People need to go out and vote,” the adviser added. “You don’t want people to think about legal challenges.”

A second Harris adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Harris' plans for election week, said the campaign and Democrats are looking ahead to the 2000 and 2020 elections and preparing for a possible legal battle with Trump.

“We’re not doing Y2K again,” the person said. “She is a fighter. For example: “I don't eat for breakfast.” I break down doors.' This is Kamala Harris. She is a very strong person and a whole legal team is focused on that.”

The person emphasized that Harris is a trained lawyer and had considered that Trump might try to challenge the election results in court. But the campaign is also focused on “closing gaps” so that the race isn’t even so close that a legal challenge in one state would affect the outcome of the entire election.

Polls show a neck-and-neck race with razor-thin poll results in the key battleground states. But while Harris and her allies have portrayed the vice president as an underdog in the race, Trump's messages have been less nuanced and focused more on the idea that he will win, signaling to supporters that any outcome where he falls short is fraudulent is.

“She is a threat to democracy,” Trump said on Monday. “She's a threat in many ways, but that's how it has to be because we're winning by a lot. We have a big lead. We are ahead in the polls.”

“Every single state,” he added.