How might Israel respond to Iran's missile attacks? | Israel attacks Lebanon news

Israel and Iran have never been closer to triggering a regional war in the Middle East.

In response to Israel's assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week and following the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack with two on Tuesday Waves.

According to Israeli army reports, the salvo of 180 projectiles caused no casualties as most of the rockets were intercepted. Iran claimed it was targeting three military bases in the Tel Aviv area.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately vowed retaliation, saying Iran had “made a big mistake and will pay for it” as the US rallied behind its close ally.

“Make no mistake, the United States fully supports Israel,” President Joe Biden said at the White House, adding that he was discussing a response to the attack.

How will Israel respond to Iran?

The region now stands in limbo, waiting to see whether Israel chooses to de-escalate or seeks to confront its long-time enemy with US support.

Marc Owen Jones, an analyst at Northwestern University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that while the Iranian attack was carefully timed to avoid escalation, Israel's response was “unpredictable.”

Iran's attack on Tuesday was aimed at restoring some level of deterrence as Tehran can no longer afford to “look weak” in the face of Israeli attacks on its allies in the region, Owen Jones said.

However, Israel was reportedly informed of the impending US attack in time to intercept the missiles and drones. Therefore, Iran's use of sophisticated weapons must be viewed as a “symbolic effort,” he added.

Because damage from the attack was minimal, Israel was able to opt for a limited response, as it did in April when Iran launched its first attack on Israeli territory.

In retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus, Iran fired about 120 ballistic missiles and 170 drones on April 13, causing minor damage to a military base in southern Israel. Days later, on April 18, Israel attacked the Artesh air base in Isfahan, destroying part of an S-300 long-range air defense system.

The attack did little to undermine Iran's military capabilities, but its precision served as an implicit threat while preventing further escalation.

Still, the scale and nature of Iran's attack – the use of ballistic missiles, many of which passed Israel's Iron Dome air defense system – means that Israel's response will also have to be “much tougher” than in April to provide its own deterrence, Andreas said Krieg, lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London.

In April, Israel fired on Iranian targets from outside Iranian airspace. Krieg said he expected Israel to send its warplanes into Iranian airspace this time to launch attacks on military sites.

If Israel does decide to engage in real escalation, it could potentially mark a departure from decades of proxy war and draw Iranian forces into direct confrontation with Israel and its biggest ally, the United States, warned Owen Jones.

“The West blames Iran for the escalation,” he said. “This is good for Israel because it is able to mobilize the support of this coalition against Iran while distracting the world from what it is doing in Gaza.”

What targets can Israel attack?

According to public statements by Israeli officials, all options are on the table. This could include attacks on nuclear and oil production facilities, targeted assassinations of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and targeted raids on military installations.

Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari said Israel would respond “where, when and how we want.” Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for a decisive attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

“We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and its core energy assets and fatally weaken this terrorist regime,” Bennett wrote on X after Iran’s missile fire. “We have the justification. We have the tools. Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are paralyzed, Iran is exposed.”

The Natanz uranium enrichment complex and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center are two of the core sites of Iran's nuclear program. Downtown Isfahan, the scene of Israel's response in April, is also home to several key facilities, including military contractors.

Nevertheless, targeting Iranian nuclear sites in response to an attack that caused minimal damage may be considered disproportionate. Such an attack could also backfire, prompting Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program to deter future attacks on its territory.

On Wednesday, Biden said he would not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

King's College's Krieg also pointed out that most of Iran's nuclear facilities are located deep underground, beneath mountains. “It is not something Israel can easily achieve from the air,” he told Al Jazeera.

Oil fields – which are open and less guarded than the heavily securitized nuclear sites – could be alternative military targets. An attack on Iran's lucrative oil sector at a time when Iranian authorities are facing growing public pressure over the country's dire economic situation could also play to Israel's political advantage. However, Krieg said he was not sure whether Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities would be considered justified in the eyes of the global community given the nature of Iran's military attacks on Tuesday.

Iranian naval bases and naval installations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are other potential targets for Israel. In addition to the Iranian capital Tehran, the port city of Bandar-e Bushehr, which houses important energy infrastructure and Iranian navy facilities, is an important hub.

Tel Aviv could also continue the series of targeted assassinations by targeting Iranian leaders, as it has done with Hezbollah, Iran's best-armed and best-equipped ally in the region. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was taken to a safe location in Iran amid heightened security after Israel killed Hezbollah's Nasrallah in an attack on Beirut last week, according to a Reuters report.

The news agency said Iran is concerned about infiltration by Israeli agents, including Iranians on the Israeli payroll, and is conducting a thorough personnel investigation among mid-level and senior members of the IRGC.

For its part, Iran, wary of starting a major war, has warned Israel of retaliation.

The Iranian Armed Forces' Joint Chief of Staff, General Mohammad Bagheri, said the IRGC was ready to repeat its missile attack with “multiplied intensity” if Israel retaliates on its territory.

“If the Zionist regime, which has gone mad, is not contained by America and Europe and intends to continue such crimes or do anything against our sovereignty or territorial integrity, the operation (on Tuesday) will be repeated on a much larger scale and we will strike. “Your entire infrastructure,” he said.

Bagheri also warned that Iran has so far avoided targeting Israeli civilians, but that doing so is “entirely feasible.”