In the worst case scenario, the Guardians' elite bullpen runs out of steam

CLEVELAND – A Guardians defenseman was watching another MLB playoff game recently when TV analyst John Smoltz revealed something that struck a chord with him.

Pitching in the postseason, Smoltz said, is like pitching at Coors Field, at the altitude where the league's most gifted hurlers die. Every duel with a batsman is a war. Every pitch requires a special level of concentration and conviction. Every recorded out feels like a triumph worth celebrating.

Erik Sabrowski threw 29 pitches in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees and said it felt more like 100. It took him nine to knock down Juan Soto and Aaron Judge and felt exhausted when he returned to the dugout. But he is new in this area.

Since March, Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase have assembled opposing lineups and solidified the undisputed strength of a team that has emerged as an unlikely World Series contender. Clase could be a finalist for the Cy Young Award and Smith will do well in the Rookie of the Year voting.

But now, in the middle of October, the Guardians' bullpen is panting. Clase appeared in six of Cleveland's nine postseason games, while Smith appeared in all but one. Both have now lost their best and one can wonder at this point whether Clase has also lost his confidence. He was hit hard again in Friday's 8-6 loss to the Yankees in Game 4, plunging the Guardians into a 3-1 series crater.

Smith's speed has dropped. Clase's command is missing. The Guardians head into an elimination game on Saturday, with Tanner Bibee taking a short break and an empty gun behind him.

Cade Smith has appeared in all but one of the Guardians' nine postseason games. (Ken Blaze-Imagn Images)

“You're so used to doing something one way, and all of a sudden you're doing it through mud,” Sabrowski said. “You’re just a lot more tired. It's crazy. Everyone stands up. The noise. No batsman wants to get out.”

Clase insists that he is not tired, that he has not been overexerted and that nothing is bothering him mechanically. He has repeatedly expressed how much he longs for the stressful moments. After being forced to give Aaron Judge an intentional walk in the 10th inning of a game at Yankee Stadium in August, he emphasized that he wished he could face the soon-to-be two-time AL MVP. But Clase failed on consecutive nights against the Yankees – harrowing, back-to-back blasts against the Yankees' giants in Game 3 and a series of singles at the bottom of New York's lineup in Game 4.

Giancarlo Stanton said the Yankees' plan is to “not be afraid, not to be intimidated.” Yankees manager Aaron Boone went a step further, saying his club's track record against Clase had removed the aura of invincibility around Cleveland's closer.

“If you have success against him and you know he throws a lot,” Boone said, “then you probably have a little bit of confidence that we can do that against one of the game's greats.”

Clase didn't stick around to explain how Stanton and Judge hit his throws into the seats in Game 3. He left Progressive Field around the same time that David Fry was swimming in Gatorade after his walk-off home run. After Game 4, he sat at his locker, staring into oblivion as he waited for a swarm of reporters. Clase said he had never been subjected to such scrutiny in his career.

“In my opinion, he's still the best pitcher in the world,” Guardians catcher Austin Hedges said, “and that's baseball.” That's a really good team over there with a lot of really good hitters, and they're allowed to hit. They also drive nice cars.”

Clase believes it is a combination of missing his spots at times and occasional losses on good spots. He hung both Stanton in Game 3 and the Detroit Tigers' Kerry Carpenter in Game 2 of the ALDS slider over the middle of the plate. Judge took a good pitch, a 99 mph cutter on the outside edge, and hammered it right into the seats Thursday night.

“Obviously,” Clase said, “it’s a little surprising.”

Clase, Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin, Cleveland's Four Horsemen, all posted ERAs under 2.00 and all ranked in the league's top 10 in regular-season appearances. Smith and Herrin have appeared in eight of the team's nine playoff games. Gaddis has appeared in seven years. Clase appeared in six innings, although he was tasked with multiple innings on multiple occasions.

Smith had over 200 pitches in both July and August before Guardians manager Stephen Vogt slowed him down a bit in September, likely to save him for that moment. He threw 141 pitches in those two weeks of October, 30 more than he threw in all of September.

Smith's average fastball velocity was 96.0 mph during the regular season. During the third ALCS game the speed was 95.2 mph and in the fourth game it dropped to 94 mph. There's no hiding it, especially at this point in the season, in his 82nd appearance. He said he would discuss this with the team's pitching gurus.

“The radar gun is right in front of your eyes,” Smith said. “They don’t hide it from you. It’s all over the stadium.”

Now the Guardians have no margin for error and a pitching staff that is firing on all cylinders. They need three straight wins against the Yankees, and the idea of ​​Smith and Clase overcompensating for a struggling rotation no longer holds water.

Bibee begins Game 5 with a short break (although he only threw 39 shots in Game 2). The only Cleveland substitutes who did not play in Game 4 were Andrew Walters and Pedro Avila. At some point they both warmed up. Both pitched in Game 3. Ben Lively could theoretically pitch, or he could start a possible Game 6 in New York if the Guardians have enough fuel to get there.

“Everyone is tired,” said Vogt. “I think we used them a lot. We had. This is who we are.”

(Top photo by Emmanuel Clase: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)