Inside Ollie Gordon's disastrous season at Oklahoma State

The state of Oklahoma is in the midst of a potential disaster. And Ollie Gordon isn't living up to Heisman Trophy expectations. So what went wrong? Well, a little bit of everything.

In a way it's flattering.

Mike Gundy set a record in Stillwater, winning at least seven games in every season except 2005, when he posted a 4-7 record in his first year as head coach. This consistent competitiveness is completely unusual for a non-Blue program.

It also made the first half of Oklahoma State's 2024 season harrowing to watch. The Pokes play at No. 13 BYU on Friday night in a matchup between a 3-3 team and a 6-0 team. But two months ago you would have thought that Oklahoma State would be the undefeated side and BYU would be the one in contention to make a bowl.

But the Pokes were terrible by their standards, and the most glaring failure to live up to expectations was the game run by Oklahoma State.

Tailback Ollie Gordon was a popular preseason pick to be a season-long Heisman Trophy finalist after leading the FBS with 1,732 rushing yards and a 6.1 carry average.

Gundy had fielded elite running backs many times before (Chuba Hubbard, Justice Hill, Kendall Hunter, etc.) and the program's long-range running history is one of the richest in the sport. Nobody needed Gordon to be Barry Sanders or Thurman Thomas, but he seemed like a big star this year.

It didn't happen.

Gordon is having his own nightmare year. He averaged 3.8 yards on 101 carries (304) in half a season and scored four touchdowns after scoring 21 last year. He only occasionally played a minor role as a pass catcher.

Two weeks ago, he lost to West Virginia due to an injury that, while it didn't appear to be the end of his season, could still limit him in the second half.

What went wrong? Pretty much everything.

A collapse of the offensive line

The story of Gordon's miserable season begins with the boys blocking him.

In 2023, Gordon averaged 4.0 yards before contact as his offensive line pushed forward and he darted forward into holes. In 2024, the Oklahoma State line failed to deliver, and Gordon averaged 1.8 yards before contact.

It's a strange thing! Four of the five starters on Oklahoma State's offensive line are redshirt seniors and returning starters, most of whom received high praise early in their careers. The series includes returning team captains and dozens of starting players. The fifth starter is a transfer from Arizona State, left tackle Isaia Glass, who brought plenty of starting experience in a power conference.

It's not just Gordon who can't get out of neutral. Oklahoma State backup running backs Sesi Vailahi and Trent Howard average between 0.9 and 2.2 yards before contact. In comparison, Oklahoma State's running backs averaged 3.7 yards before contact last year.

There's no doubt that Oklahoma State's running backs have had a harder time – more than twice as hard – getting to the top this year. The offensive line simply didn't open any running lanes.

A slight decline in Gordon's race

However, it's not clear that this is entirely the line's fault. OK State's offensive line has allowed a run breakup rate of 44.0%. This is the number of run blocking reps in which an offensive lineman allows a defender to beat him into a gap and change lanes. That's roughly in line with the 44.9% business interruption rate the unit admitted last year.

So what's going on? Are the Cowboys linemen just standing there, unable to get forward despite not allowing defenders to get into the backfield? That's part of it.

Another factor is that Gordon was no longer the same superhuman ball carrier he was in 2023.

Last year, Gordon averaged 2.2 yards after contact and 2.8 yards on runs with a run break. This year, he averaged 1.9 yards after contact (a smaller decline than his yards before contact, but still a 14% decline) and 1.3 yards per run interception. He forced 0.2 missed or broken tackles per carry, more or less the same as last year.

Gordon's performance didn't completely collapse, but he was a little less strong than he was in his star performance in 2023. And since the management couldn't get him going, that was a problem.

It's not about the defense filling the box

After an ugly running performance against Tulsa in September, Gundy suspected that one of the reasons for Gordon's lack of production was a defensive preference for Gordon Push defenders into the penalty area to stop him.

That is not the case.

Gordon faced eight-man boxes on 27.3% of his snaps this season, one of the lowest rates in the Big 12. (The league average for running backs with more than 25 carries is 39.1%.)

Given Oklahoma State's penchant for a wide spread offense, eight-man boxes may not be the best metric. What really matters is whether Oklahoma State has enough blockers to handle all the guys who want to attack Gordon. But in fact, Gordon had more chances to run against straight or favorable boxes than all but two Big 12 running backs.

Gordon completed 74 of his 101 carries on which Oklahoma State had at least as many blockers in the box (offensive linemen, tight ends, tight receivers and fullbacks) as the opponent had defenders. (This calculation does not include quarterbacks or running backs who could make up the numbers more favorable for option concepts.)

On those runs alone, Gordon has averaged just 3.5 yards total and 1.7 yards before contact, each a tiny fraction of the numbers posted by backs like Texas Tech's Tahj Brooks (5.9 yards per run at a consistent or favorable number of boxes) and RJ from UCF Harvey (6.6). With that in mind, the performance of Oklahoma State's offensive line also looks pretty poor, as the performance often comes against light box counts.

Gordon drove in 18 runs at an absolutely favorable box count, with Oklahoma State having more blockers than defenders in the area. Only Brooks (30) had more such opportunities among Big 12 defensemen. Brooks has averaged 6.9 yards with a favorable box, and the Big 12 average is 4.7 yards. Gordon has now achieved an average of 2.4.

An inexplicable mistake

Oklahoma State hasn't gotten good quarterback play, and the offensive line appears to have taken a big step backwards, despite returning mostly the same players that helped Gordon break out in 2023.

But even when conditions seem most favorable for Gordon to carry the ball effectively, he is unable to get going. The only clear thing about the solution to this problem is that Gundy couldn't find it.

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