Is Josh Allen running for his life on Monday Night Football?

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:

Uh, what can you do?: I was born and raised in Brooklyn and heard it a million times from Pop growing up. Woven into everyday conversation, it works in so many ways and encompasses almost every scenario. Simple enough for the average person, yet strangely profound.

If you're wondering what I'm rambling about, you were probably busy yesterday, so I'll bring you up to speed. As much as we focus on details, sometimes things fall through the cracks. I've recommended a particular prop for the reception to a lot of wonderful readers, Cleveland's TE Jordan Akins Over 2.5 receptions. Sounds completely cromulent, right, so what's wrong with that? Honestly, I have no idea how it happened, but I made my best, thoughtful argument, complete with defensive diagrams… for the wrong team.

And if you know anything about me, you know I freaked out when it was brought to my attention. I don't want to make a heartbreaking apology now, any more than you want to hear one. We're sports bettors, we're tough. No matter how much it hurts, we make mistakes, acknowledge them, and move on. So if you know you've done your best, let the rare mishaps roll off like water off a duck.

Enough of that, we can't waste time looking back, we have work to do. Oh, and I almost forgot the best part – Akins overcame his catch prop with ease! That's life…

After tonight, Week 4 of the NFL is here. Compare the best prices from all major sportsbooks using our free NFL betting odds table!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Running against the wind
• The New York Prop Exchange

Running against the wind 🏃🏽‍♂️🌪️🏈 —Do not turn your back on Josh Allen

There's nothing better than having the entire nation's undivided attention on the big players in big places. Josh Allen spent the whole week preparing for the alignment Trevor Lawrence and welcome the winless Jaguars on Monday night.

There was no shortage of talking heads and internet loudmouths (ahem) getting their shovels out for the Buffalo offense before the season even started. First, I wasn't excited about the offense after the change in plays. Then, the loss of talent from Steve Diggs And Gabe Davis (plus the continuity they had built) would have to impact the offense, right? Apparently no one told Allen that – Buffalo is second in both points scored and offensive EPA/play.

Now that the undefeated Bills are scoring at will, surely Allen must be passing like crazy, right? No, not so fast. You don't have to be a professional technical analyst to know that the passing trend is heading in the wrong direction.

With the Bills already in the bottom 10 in both hurries allowed per game and pressure rate, Allen was more willing than ever to back off and run (see below).

Why is this the main focus of my hairy eyeball? Man coverage creates opportunities for dual-threat QBs who can start running as soon as they see the back of the DBs' jerseys while reading the field. And Jacksonville plays man coverage an order of magnitude better than anyone else in the league. That's really remarkable.

Even though Allen didn't run much last week, the Bills controlled the game against Miami the entire time (get well soon, Tua!), and I'll just chalk that up to circumstances. We know the thesis in this case remains based on the run of play. Allen has still averaged just over 31 rushing yards/game since 2023 (below), and we could see him start 10 times.

THE LADDER:

Josh Allen Over 30.5 rushing yards (-115) MGM 0.75u

Josh Allen Over 49.5 rushing yards (+350) MGM 0.25u

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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Desert Heat

Just four games on today's schedule is our first real sign that the 2024 MLB regular season is coming to an end. We've discussed the importance of resisting the temptation to bet on teams, and especially managers, that are mathematically eliminated. There's just too much variety to bet on without the need to win to inspire rational coaching decisions.

This point only makes more sense when you consider the comparable prices of teams that compete directly against those that don't. Anyway, sorry, these MLB hits are meant to be quick – I know I'll miss them when they're gone.

The same line of thought takes us to the desert, where the Diamondbacks are hosting Hayden Birdsong and the San Francisco Treats. Arizona is in pole position in a three-way race with the Mets and Braves for the last two NL Wild Card spots – the point is that it's all hands on deck for the final six games. Arizona will have the experienced left-hander Eduardo Rodriguezwhose combination of 5.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP doesn't exactly evoke a warm, fuzzy feeling.

However, we need to focus on where the puck is going, not where it's been. It's important to note that Rodriguez not only missed the first four months of the season with a shoulder injury, but he also hasn't had a single rehab appearance in the minors. Whenever that's the case, I grant a grace period as a simulated spring training with a close eye on fastball velocity. For E-Rod, we need it right at or around 92 MPH, which took a bit of time, but we finally got there (below).

E-Rod has been on a tear for the past two games, striking out 18 batters in 11.2 IP, good for an incredible 30% K-BB. Most importantly, he threw 94 pitches in his last outing. The Giants are not only eyeing the local October tee times, but also the highest strikeout rate in MLB against LHP over the past 30 days (see below). I expect E-Rod to pick them apart at a crucial point.

THE BET: Eduardo Rodriguez +7 strikeouts (+140) DKSB 0.5u

You can search for MLB player props for today's slate using our MLB Prop Bet Finder!

ALL ABOUT THE WATER COOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 How did we do? Claudia, Freedman and LaMarca see how their The tips for week 3 and a look ahead to week 4.

📺 Let us try with all our might. Claudia and Thor go through last week's college football bets and look ahead to the first odds of week 5.

🏈 🏈 It’s a Monday Night Football doubleheader, and Matt LaMarca gives his best tips for both games.

🔮 Get a head start NFL Week 4 with these early betting odds.

😭 My survivor hopes and dreams looked good until the 4th quarter.