Is that real? Week 5

After four weeks it is important to consider what is real and what is not acceptable for fantasy production.

Jayden Reed's hot start isn't sustainable

Reed finished 2023 as the WR26 in total points and averaged 13.4 PPG, good for WR27. Four weeks into 2024, Reed ranks WR6 in points per game (19.4) through Week 4. While the production boost is nice, don't rely on it in the future.

In 2024, Reed ran a route on 77% of the team's dropbacks and was targeted on 21% of its routes. This is a significant increase in route participation from 2023 (64%), but a decrease in its target rate (23%).

He has 17 receptions this season, which is a slight overperformance from his expected 15.9 receptions. He produced big plays that resulted in 336 receiving yards with 173.6 expected yards and two receiving touchdowns with 0.9 expected touchdowns.

Reed's overperformance also extends to the rushing game, where he ran for 91 yards with an expected percentage of 23.5. He also scored a touchdown with an expectation of 0 rushing touchdowns.

In short, this has resulted in Reed performing five points above expectations in four weeks. This inevitably leads to regression.

A few things work in Reed's favor. First, Malik Willis was the quarterback in two games when Green Bay took an extremely run-heavy approach. In the two games Jordan Love played, the team threw the ball 44 times per game. In the two games Willis started, Green Bay only threw the ball 17 times per game. Green Bay lost both games Love started, so his pass attempts should be down, but the pass volume should be closer to the 44 attempts per game than the 17 attempts per game under Willis.

Second, Christian Watson's injury could linger, so Reed could expect expanded participation in the route. Reed will need this to continue his good start for the rest of the season.

Conclusion: Overall, Reed is an efficient player, but this situation is a big sell after Week 4.

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