Jack reacts: Jack Schlossberg analyzes the latest election polls

The presidential race is neck and neck, neck and neck. But don't take my word for it or anyone else's. No matter what you hear, no one really knows what's going to happen.

Polls aren't always accurate, but they're all we have. So here's what we know: Nationally, the race is even, a few points give or take within the margin of error. Regardless of the ups and downs, it's clear that support for former President Trump remains high, despite a boost for Harris' campaign since the vice president took over as the Democratic frontrunner over the summer.

But remember: National polls are an indicator of general support, but that is not how we elect a president. It is obvious that the Electoral College decides the presidency, not the majority of popular votes.

What does all this mean? As always, this election will be decided by turnout in specific places. In particular, voters in a handful of swing states – Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia – will decide our future. Here's where that election stands, according to an average of solid polls:

• PA: Harris +1.6
• AZ: Trump +0.4
• MI: Harris +3.2
• WI: Harris +1.7
• NV: Harris +1.4
• GA: Trump +1.6

While it may seem like Harris is ahead, the reality is more complicated. In the past, polls have tended to underestimate Trump's support on Election Day.

The real story, in my opinion, is what young voters will do. Young voters will be especially important this election cycle: For the first time, Gen Z and Millennial voters will make up nearly HALF of the voting population. In 2020, youth turnout was 50% – a huge increase compared to previous years and a possible indication of another high turnout in 2024.

No matter who wins, this election will be decided by a few thousand votes. That's why young people – and whether they vote or not – are the most important variable. Recent polls show that young people overall are extremely enthusiastic about Kamala Harris, but there is a significant and widening gender gap between men and women under the age of 29. The latest New York Times/Siena polls conducted in six swing states show that young women prefer Harris by 38 points, while young men prefer Trump by 13 points, a difference of 51 points.