Kamala Harris is not the favorite in any contested state – ratings markets

According to the latest betting odds from Polymarket, Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris in the presidential race in almost every key battleground state.

With less than three weeks left until Election Day, Trump is now favored to win in all major swing states, marking a significant shift in momentum. Polymarket odds show Trump leading Harris nationally with a 60.3 percent chance of winning, compared to 39.7 percent for Harris. The website is partially funded by Republican billionaire Peter Thiel, who introduced Trump to his vice president, JD Vance, in 2021.

In the seven contested states, Trump's chances are even greater. As of Thursday, he has a 68 percent chance of winning in Arizona, 63 percent in North Carolina and 65 percent in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, a key state, Trump has a 59 percent chance of winning, while Harris trails at 41 percent. In Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump is ahead by a margin of 12 percentage points, with the odds for him being between 56 and 44 percent. Nevada is the only state where the odds are evenly distributed and both candidates have a 50 percent chance of winning.

This dramatic shift in odds coincided with a risky move by a mysterious Polymarket user named “Fredi9999,” who has bet millions on Trump’s victory.

As reported by Newsweek Earlier this week, the trader bought more than $14 million worth of stocks betting on a Trump victory, including a sizable investment in Pennsylvania, which was perhaps the most critically contested with 19 Electoral College votes and polls on a knife-edge state in this cycle.

Fredi9999 has been actively increasing its position, with bets being placed as recently as this week, sparking speculation about their strategy and intentions.

Political experts warn that while betting odds can provide an indication of trends, they are far from a guaranteed indicator of the election outcome.

Thomas Gift, director of the Center on US Politics at University College London, warned in a recent statement Newsweek Interview that “betting markets have become reasonably accurate predictors of elections – even more so than some polls – but they are far from foolproof.”

He noted that ratings often fluctuate based on small, seemingly insignificant events that may not reflect broader trends in the electorate.

The Polymarket odds differ from traditional polls, which show a much closer race in many battleground states.

According to FiveThirtyEight's prediction model, which is based on weighted polling averages, Harris leads Trump by 2-3 percentage points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. However, Trump has gained the upper hand in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, where he has slight poll advantages.

Nevertheless, the influence of the betting markets on the perception of the race is significant. Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor, argued in a recent Substack post that big bets like those made by “Fredi9999” could artificially increase Trump's odds by creating a “floor” in the market. This strategy could, in turn, impact the overall narrative surrounding the election and potentially strengthen Trump's public image as the front-runner.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.