Maps show NOAA's winter outlook with a warmer, drier south and a wetter north

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its seasonal outlook for the winter months of 2024-25, predicting a slow transition across the United States La Niña pattern This could lead to wetter than average conditions in the north and dryer than average conditions in the south.

NOAA's seasonal outlook assumes this Wet-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes region and the Northwest. Dryer-than-average conditions are expected for the southern part of the U.S., particularly in the Four Corners region, which includes the southwestern corner of Colorado, the southeastern corner of Utah, the northeastern corner of Arizona and the northwestern corner of New Mexico – and into the Southeast .

The outlook does not predict seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

Warmer than average temperatures are expected from the southern part of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, the East Coast, New England and northern Alaska. These probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and most of Texas. Below-average temperatures are most likely in southern Alaska, with below-average temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to northern plateau.

With the transition to La Niña, drought conditions are expected to improve or end in the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes region, and portions of the northwestern United States, including eastern Washington and Oregon and northern and central Idaho.

Above-average precipitation will also be favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and throughout the northern United States. This probability is highest in parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.

The greatest chance of drier than average conditions is in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico. Drought conditions are expected to continue across the Great Plains. Drought is likely to develop or worsen in portions of the Southwest and Gulf Coast.

Much of California, the central Plains states, and the Interstate 95 corridor from Boston to Washington, DC have equal chances of below-average, near-average, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

NOAA's seasonal forecasts are designed to help communities prepare for expected events in the coming months and minimize the impact of weather on lives and livelihoods. Resources such as drought.gov and Climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-related hazards.