Miami vs. Florida State score prediction by an experienced football model

One of college football's most memorable rivalry games begins Saturday when No. 6 Miami hosts reeling Florida State this weekend. Let's take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects results and picks winners.

Florida State has won the last three games of this series, outscoring the Hurricanes 103 to 51, but the models and bookies have a very different view of this season as the Seminoles have fallen to a shocking 1-6 college football record second worst attack.

Miami is in a different universe this season, earning a 7-0 record and a top-10 ranking, right in the middle of the ACC title race, thanks to the nation's No. 1 passing attack and No. 2 scoring offense.

What does the analysis suggest when the Seminoles and Hurricanes meet in this ACC matchup?

To do this, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview the Miami vs. Florida State matchup in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models give the Hurricanes a big advantage over the Seminoles in this case.

SP+ predicts Miami will beat Florida State by a 10% margin expected score 39 to 16 and win the game as expected Lead of 22.5 points in victory.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong touch 92 percent chance of the overall victory in the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a win rate of 52.1 after being 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Miami is a 20.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total below 54.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -1700 and for Florida State +890 win directly.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

If you do this, you will find yourself in the company of a wide range of bettors, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations for the game.

Miami gets 66 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous spread against its rivals.

The other one 34 percent of bets assume the Seminoles will either win the game in an upset or, more likely, keep the final score under 3 touchdowns.

Miami is 33 points better than his opponents in home game average this season.

But that advantage has narrowed in the last three games as the Hurricanes have come up short 4 points better on average during this time.

Florida State is 12 points worse than his opponents on the road in 2024.

And that average margin of defeat increased to 16.3 points in the last 3 matches.

Overall, the hurricanes are 22.2 points better than their opponents overall this season, while the Seminoles were 10 points worse as theirs in 2024.

Most other analytical models also point to a big win for the Hurricanes against the Seminoles.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Miami is expected to win the game by overpowering 91.4 percent the computer's latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida State as the expected favorite in the remaining game 8.6 percent by Sims.

Miami is expected to be 21.2 points better than Florida State on the same field in the current makeup of both teams, according to the model's latest prediction.

Miami is first among ACC teams with one 86.5 percent chance according to FPI metrics to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

This model gives the Hurricanes an overall win prediction of 11.8 games this season.

Florida State will win 2.9 games in 2024, according to the index calculations.

That's enough for one Probability 0.1 percent to qualify for a bowl game this year.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 7pm Eastern
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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