MLB 2024 playoffs: What we've learned so far from the Mets-Dodgers NLCS

LOS ANGELES – After two very different games at Dodger Stadium, the National League Championship Series is tied and we've decided… actually, nothing.

The New York Mets' 7-3 win on Monday more or less reset the series, not just in games won but in less tangible categories as well. They've curbed the momentum that had powered the Los Angeles Dodgers since they turned the tide against San Diego in the NLDS, and perhaps created some momentum of their own. Additionally, both teams head into Game 3 with a travel day on Tuesday with fresh bullpens and additional time to recover key players suffering from serious injuries – good news for Freddie Freeman, Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Lux.

So after two games in 18 hours we're back where we started? Only now we are dealing with a best-of-five matchup in which the Mets have a home-field advantage. That last factor may seem huge, but if you've followed the playoffs in recent years, it is barely a factor. The momentum that seems to have shifted from the Dodgers to the Mets over the course of a nine-inning contest at the moment isn't really noticeable either.

“Every game will bring a new task,” Dodgers right fielder Mookie Betts said. “We all have the same mindset. When we lose, we all say to throw it out. If we win, let's use the momentum. But that's no secret. The game will determine what happens.”

Just because we don't know doesn't mean we don't know anything, which may be a paraphrase of something Yogi Berra once said. There are some lessons to be learned from these first two competitions, small factors that could well be of great importance in the coming days.

The Mets are going big

When things get tough, the Mets go deep.

We've seen this time and time again since the Mets made resiliency their defining characteristic. There was Francisco Lindor's starting shot in Atlanta that secured New York's shot in the postseason in the first place. There was Pete Alonso, who hit a season-saving three-run home run off a changeup from Devin Williams to lift the Mets past Milwaukee. And on Monday we got a two-fer: Lindor started the game with a leadoff blast to right, giving the Mets the immediate lead, their first run of the series and the first run scored by a Dodgers opponent since Game 3 against the Padres had scored. Then, after Dave Roberts ordered a walk to Lindor to load the bases in the second, Mark Vientos hit a ninth-pitch grand slam off Landon Knack.

All the blows of fate described have one thing in common: they all came on the street. Maybe that's reading too much into it, but putting homer after homer on the board with season-best championship leverage indicators certainly seems like a trait of a team with great mental toughness – nothing says, “We're not dead.” Still, it's better than hitting the ball over a fence, especially if you do so on your opponent's home field.

They've also enjoyed relief players: The Mets have a .270 batting average with a .426 slugging percentage against them after Monday's win, and there's Lindor's tackle on Ryan Brasier, who was technically a starter as an opener , not yet included. Teams other than the Mets hit .270 with a .307 slug against bullpens. New York's six home runs against relievers (again, not including the one against Brasier) are twice as many as any other surviving team.

Overall, the Mets' offense wasn't particularly good, although the same could be said for every other team. But it was great when it had to be and had to be. And when the Mets are backed into a corner, they come out swinging – big.

Mark Vientos is real

Offense is so hard to find in the postseason, even for the game's biggest stars. We're currently seeing it on teams that have actually won, as both of the league's surefire MVPs (Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani) struggled to maintain production in October.

Vientos, however, was unflappable in his first exposure to playoff baseball. After a quiet Game 1, his grand slam gave him three home runs and 11 RBI to go with a .378/.410/.676 slash line during the playoffs. His cumulative win probability is 1.18, putting him one state mile ahead of everyone else (Lindor is in second place at 0.68).

Translation: Vientos doesn't just produce, it produces in places that make a difference. One would think that a newbie under such a spotlight would become too aggressive when someone is led to him. But on Monday, Vientos not only went deep, he also went deep on the ninth pitch of the at-bat. He saw seven crack sliders in that sequence, fouling four of them and striking out the rest. Finally he hit a four-seater into the right-center.

“I didn’t think he was going to give me a fastball,” Vientos said. “That was my approach to seeing a heater, but I wasn’t expecting a heater.”

And yet he did it.

The emergence of Vientos is huge for the Mets lineup as it complicates opponents' “let's not let Lindor hit” problem, especially with Nimmo and Alonso emerging next. The deliberate move Roberts called to avoid Lindor was nothing unusual — but it's becoming increasingly difficult for Mets opponents to treat Vientos as less of a threat than the veterans around him.

Oh-oh Ohtani

Betts was asked after the game about some strange splits from Shohei Ohtani.

“Shohei will be fine,” Betts said. He declined to say more.

But these divisions are strange, Mookie. Ohtani is 6-for-8 with runners on bases in the playoffs – and 0-for-19 with the bases empty. Since Ohtani is the Dodgers' leadoff hitter, this is significant. Even for someone who hit 54 home runs over the course of the season, getting on base is still part of the job description. (He walked twice in Game 2.)

This is probably just a truly surreal example of small-rehearsal theater, but it deserves a closer look. Is there a magic pitch sequence that neutralizes Ohtani when no one is on base but cannot be used when there are ducks on the pond?

The answer is: Of course not, and even if it were, we wouldn't be able to tell based on a postseason data set. With runners, Ohtani has done damage against both hard and broken material. Since there is no one on the base, he didn't harm anyone. He's beaten slider/sweeper/curve offerings six times, and if anything, he might just get a little too big with no one on base.

“Shohei will be fine,” Betts said as a reminder. And you know he's almost certainly right. In fact, as a Mets fan, it probably makes you a little nervous that Ohtani has been so suppressed thus far.

There was talk before the game about whether the Dodgers should have simply used Buehler in Game 2 instead of going with an outlandish bullpen strategy that tends not to work if none of your bullpenners put up zeros.

However, in a seven-game series, the Dodgers had to do this at some point — and they may have to go this route twice if the series goes long. It made a lot of sense to do this in Game 2, before an off day and a day after the bullpen had a light workload thanks to Jack Flaherty's Game 1 gem.

Asked about it before the game, Roberts said: “I like Walker on the road.” When asked to elaborate, he added: “Experience. He did it.”

That's a simple answer, but the fact is that Buehler has a 2.01 ERA in 10-plus career playoff starts at Dodger Stadium, while he's 5.81 on the road in 6-plus starts. Since the bullpen game didn't work out, it's easy to find fault now. Buehler can stave off further doubt by dishing it out on Wednesday.

Diaz was asked to get four outs and he did. He also finished the game with a flourish, striking out Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Freeman to end the game, with the first two K's coming on fastballs that were nearing the 100 mph limit.

Diaz's slider when on has always set him apart, but in the ninth inning he leaned more on the heater due to the Mets' four-run lead.

“I have a good lead to challenge them,” Diaz said. “I did that. I gave up on the mistake and then went to Ohtani. Then I trusted my fastball and threw it right down the middle for them.”

It's something to watch. Diaz hasn't been invincible this season, but when he puts on the kind of performance he put on in Game 2 against some of the Dodgers' best hitters, you can get a glimpse of what he was before he went down last injured his knee last year.

Having this version of Diaz available for the rest of the series will shorten the game for the Mets – especially important because their overall bullpen is thinner than the Dodgers'.