NLDS Series Preview: Mets and Phillies face first postseason series

This week alone, the Mets have picked up two of the biggest wins in franchise history and will therefore begin a best-of-five National League Division Series against the rival Phillies this afternoon in Philadelphia. And Kodai Senga starts with the first game in the series.

After Pete Alonso's three-run home run that turned a deficit into a lead in the ninth inning of Game 3 in Milwaukee, the Mets enter this series in about as good a position as they've been in the postseason for a very long time. The vast majority of players who have made it to this point are on the active roster and producing. Including Senga, the team has six viable starting players. Some of them appear in relief.

Of course, nothing can be taken for granted here, even if the mood is extremely high at the moment. The Phillies are a good team. So are the Mets. It doesn't feel like the Mets have any remaining teams to contend with in these playoffs, but neither should be taken lightly.

The Phillies' rotation is impressive. Their bullpen wasn't in the big leagues during the regular season, but it was slightly better than the Mets' bullpen by ERA. The Phillies' relievers had a 3.94 ERA this season, while the Mets' bullpen had a 4.03 ERA. Both were in midfield.

It's no surprise that Bryce Harper was the Phillies' best hitter this year. He finished the season with a .285/.373/.525 line, 30 home runs and a 145 wRC+. He's had better years, but he was still very, very good. And Kyle Schwarber ranks second among Phillies hitters with a wRC+ of 135. He is the only connection to the Mets' last significant playoff run, as he was with the Cubs when the Mets defeated them in the NLCS in 2015.

Additionally, Trea Turner was pretty solid with a 124 wRC+, and Alec Bohm (115 wRC+), JT Realmuto (109 wRC+), Brandon Marsh (108 wRC+), and Nick Castellanos (105 wRC+) were all above league average.

As for the Mets, it's understood that Max Kranick – who was on the Wild Card roster despite spending the year in the minors – will be cut from the NLDS roster to make room for Senga. And one of Adam Ottavino, Huascar Brazobán or Danny Young will almost certainly be left out of the squad to make a place for Tylor Megill, who Carlos Mendoza has confirmed will be there.

As for position players, the roster numbers are expected to be identical to the ones the Mets used against the Brewers. Jeff McNeil could join Senga in this playoff run in returning from injury, but a return is not imminent. That would mean that Luisangel Acuña, who appeared exclusively as a defensive replacement in all three games of the Wild Card Series, remains on the NLDS roster.

The atmosphere at both Citizens Bank Park and Citi Field is said to be intense. It's been a minute since these teams faced off in such an important series.

Match 1 – Saturday, October 5: Kodai Senga vs. Zack Wheeler at 4:08 p.m. EDT on FOX

Senga (2024): 5.1 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 3.38 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 85 ERA-

In his only start of the regular season, Senga returned from injury and picked up where he left off in 2023. The fact that he suffered another injury and missed the rest of the regular season was a shame. Whatever the Mets get from him in this game and in potential future starts, it's a big unexpected bonus.

Wheeler (2024): 200.0 IP, 224 K, 52 BB, 20 HR, 2.57 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 62 ERA-

Simply put, Wheeler was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Chris Sale will likely beat him out for Cy Young in the National League, but if Wheeler ends up winning the award, you can't say he doesn't deserve it.

Match 2 – Sunday, October 6: Luis Severino vs. Cristopher Sánchez at 4:08 p.m. EDT on FS1

Severino (2024): 182.0 IP, 161 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 99 ERA-/Postseason: 6.0 IP, 3 K, 2 BB, 0 HR, 4 .50 ERA, 3.67 FIP

Severino is one of several players who have been instrumental in helping the Mets get to this point. A skilled offseason addition, Severino wasn't dominant in his first postseason start for the Mets, but he pitched very well, going six innings in a game the Mets won. Even if he were to simply repeat that performance, it would improve the team's chances. If he has a jewel inside him, that would be even better.

Sánchez (2024): 181.2 IP, 153 K, 44 BB, 11 HR, 3.32 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 80 ERA-

The Phillies decided to use Sánchez in Game 2 because he has significantly better numbers at home than on the road this year. That's a little surprising given this ballpark's hitter-friendly tendencies, especially since he doesn't strike out that many batters. But his walk rate is excellent, and his home run rate this year was about a third of what it was in 2023.

Game 3 – Tuesday, October 8: TBD vs. Aaron Nola on TBD on FOX/FS1

At the very least, the Mets will have Sean Manaea available for an extra day of rest and Jose Quintana for a regular day of rest. One or both of David Peterson and Tylor Megill could also be fully rested, depending on whether or not they appear in one of the first two games of the series.

Nola (2024): 199.1 IP, 197 K, 50 BB, 30 HR, 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 86 ERA-

The 31-year-old had a much better season this year than he did in 2023, as he finished the latter with a 4.46 ERA. Like Sánchez, his strikeout rate isn't particularly high, but his walk rate is excellent. Unlike Sánchez, he tended to give up home runs this year as he allowed 1.35 per nine innings.

Game 4* – Wednesday, October 9th: TBD vs. TBD on TBD on FOX/FS1

Game 5* – Friday, October 11: TBD vs. TBD on TBD on FOX/FS1

*if applicable