Preview Lions vs. Cardinals: 4 important duels, statistical tips

Welcome to my Week 3 observations on the Detroit Lions' upcoming game against the Arizona Cardinals. The Lions are hoping to get back on track after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a 2-0 lead. It's the first road test for the Lions and there's confidence that fans will continue to turn out well like they showed last year and that this coaching staff has proven it can adapt and bounce back after a loss. The team hasn't lost consecutive games since Weeks 7 and 8 in 2022.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats provided via NFL Pro. Now let's look at what the Lions have to do with these angry birds.

Detroit can stop Kyler Murray's long passes

Speaking of a good coaching staff, Jonathan Gannon, who was often derided for his “pew-pew” interaction with former wide receiver Rondale Moore, has assembled a talented young staff, and it starts with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. After two weeks, Petzing has led the Cardinals' offense to the second-ranked NFL in scoring, averaging 34.5 points per game.

The mainstay of Petzng's explosive attack is Kyler Murray. It's been nearly two years since Murray tore his ACL, which cost him the first nine games last season, and for the first time in his NFL career, he's not running a gimmick-based offense. Much of Murray's early success under former coach Kliff Kingsbury came from him and DeAndre Hopkins running NBA Jam at full speed with a two-man game.

Murray is currently at his best in a well-constructed system. Against the Rams in Week 2, he completed each of his five long passes after failing to complete a single one in Week 1. Murray completed just seven such long passes in eight games last season. Of Murray's 12 long passes since the start of last season, eight have been against a single safety coverage, including three of his four touchdowns.

Meanwhile, the Lions defense has yet to allow a single deep pass (defined as more than 20 air yards) through two weeks this season. The Lions have also used single-high safety coverages on 70% of opposing drop backs, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Offenses have attempted just three deep passes against the Lions, two of which have been plagued by quarterback pressure, and have posted the fifth-best EPA/play at -0.76. The Lions' ability to prevent explosive passes can be attributed to renewed improvement in the pass rush and coverage combination under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

Last season, the Lions' sack rate was just 6.2%, good for 22nd in the NFL. This season, they're at 8.9%, good for 9th. It's not just the pass rush, though. While Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold continue to find their stride, the new safety duo of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are a big reason for the lack of explosiveness. In Week 2, Branch boasted a PFF defensive grade of 86.1, good for second among all safeties, and is currently tied for the league lead with four forced incomplete passes. Joseph is currently PFF's 11th-best safety, and his -43.3% catch rate above expectations as the next defender ranks third among all defensive backs

Given the Cardinals' success on deep passes, it will be interesting to see if the Lions counter with more nickel personnel, as their 67 snaps from base personnel are second most in the league. From nickel, the Lions are 10th in passing at -0.27 EPA/game and third with a 43.6% QB pressure rate. I'm also curious to see if they deviate from their usual single-high safety to more split safety to better stop the deep attack.

It will be a battle of strength against strength and the Lions' victory will depend on them clipping the Cardinals' wings in the air.

Cardinals running game

To complement the deep passing attack the Cardinals employed against the Rams, the team reinforces a challenging and innovative running attack. Since Murray returned in Week 10 of last season, the Cardinals have generated the second-most rushing yards above expected per run on scheduled running plays (1.0).

James Conner totaled 122 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (+27 rushing yards over expected) in the Cardinals' win over the Rams. Conner's +27 RYOE is his fifth-highest in a game since joining the Cardinals in 2021. After forcing eight missed tackles in Week 1 (second-most in the NFL), Conner forced five against the Rams. His 13 forced missed tackles this season are fourth-most in the league.

However, the Lions' run defense is as strong as ever this season. Their run defense ranks second with -0.92 rushing yards allowed over expected/attempt, third with just 3.3 yards allowed/run, and tenth with a 19.6% run rate. While the Cardinals' offensive line has gotten better under position coach Klayton Adams and second-year left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is a rising star, the offensive line has a tough matchup on paper against the Lions' physical and dominant defensive front.

The Cardinals' running success will likely depend on Drew Petzing's play design, which puts the offensive line in favorable blocking angles. Shutting down the ground attack and making the Cardinals one-dimensional will be key for Detroit.

13 employees

Petzing is especially creative when using three tight ends (also known as 13-person sets). The Cardinals have used 13-person sets on 23 of their 122 offensive plays this season (19%), the second-highest percentage in the NFL.

The Cardinals have averaged 7.3 yards per play with 13 players and scored three total touchdowns. The rest of the NFL as a whole has averaged 3.6 yards per play and scored just one touchdown. After a quiet first week, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught four of his eight targeted passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns, with both touchdowns coming on plays where the Cardinals had 13 players on the play.

The Lions will counter with their base 13-man formation, likely the 5-2 front with Derrick Barnes as the SAM linebacker at the line of scrimmage. The Lions have done a good job of stopping the run from the base and are 10th in EPA/Rush at -0.16, but are only 19th in passing, allowing +0.16. This week's matchup will be quite a chess game between Petzing and Glenn.

Goff's comeback game

It wasn't quite the start to the season everyone expected for the Lions' new $212 million man.

Jeremy Reisman released a fascinating statistical analysis this week highlighting that Jared Goff not only struggles when under pressure, as he has in the past, but he has also slacked on passing from a clean pocket. It was a pretty shocking discovery.

The Lions remain a top-10 team from an average target separation perspective (+3.8 yards and 9th this year versus 3.6 yards and 7th last year), and the Cardinals' pass coverage is ideal for Goff to get back on track. The Cardinals' defense ranks last in average yardage allowed per target at 4.8 yards. For comparison, last year's Vikings were last at just 4.3 yards, while the Texans were the worst team of 2022 at 4.1 yards. If Goff's pass receivers can get nearly 5 yards of separation on a regular basis, then he'll have those easy, big passing windows that allow him to get into rhythm.

The other obstacle to Goff's run will be keeping him clean in the pocket. As Reisman also detailed, the Lions' offensive line has allowed significantly more pressure than Goff is used to. Last year, Graham Glasgow allowed an average of 2.4 pressures per game (per PFF). That's up to 4.0 per game after two players. Frank Ragnow now has 3.0 pressures per game after allowing just 1.3 last year. Kevin Zeitler has actually held up quite well, allowing just 1.5 pressures per game, while Jonah Jackson allowed 1.9 for Detroit last year.

The Cardinals lost 2023 second-round pick BJ Ojulari, who was third on the team last season with a 9.6% pressure rate, early in training camp to a torn ACL. Their other 2024 first-round pick, Darius Robinson, is on the injured list with a calf injury. The Cardinals' blitz rate of 16.1% is only 26th in the NFL. Despite all of this, the Cardinals are fourth in the NFL with a sack rate of 11.3%.

So where does this Red Bird Pass Rush come from?

The Lions' offensive line must first slow down Dennis “The Barbarian” Gardeck. From 2020 to 2022, Gardeck was very similar to what the Lions see as the ideal role for James Houston IV. He was a 6-foot-1 pass rush specialist with limited tackles. A third-and-long hire gun. But last year, Gardeck's role was upgraded and he responded with a team-leading 6.0 sacks and 43 QB pressures. This year, he's off to a good start, recording 3.0 sacks against the Rams last week. His PFF defensive grade of 79.3 currently ranks 16th among edge defenders (right behind Maxx Crosby).

On the opposite side of Gardeck is former first-round linebacker turned edge defender Zaven Collins. Collins' impressive PFF defensive grade of 72.2 currently ranks 25th among all edge defenders. That's two top-25 edge defenders according to PFF. On the interior, nose tackle Roy Lopez has had a surprisingly good start to the season. Lopez is third on the team with three QB pressures and has a PFF pass rush grade of 90.2, the highest of any interior defender.

This week will be crucial to silencing the skeptical Goff ghouls. Ben Johnson's schemes for open-window shots and the offensive line providing impeccable protection in the pocket will go a long way in rediscovering the team's identity.