Report: Florida's economic and population growth is expected to slow

(The Center Square) – A new report predicts Florida's explosive growth will slow over the next five years.

The second quarter report from nonprofit Florida Taxwatch and the Regional Economic Consulting Group said employers will have more difficulty filling job openings due to slower population growth (net immigration has declined from 868 new residents per day to 801).

The study predicts that annual population growth, currently 1.4% compared to 2023, will begin to decline each year until it will reach 1.1% in 2029.

For every unemployed person in Florida, there are 1.6 job openings, according to the report. Additionally, the number of employees is forecast to increase from 9.96 million this year to 10.7 million in 2029. Additionally, the state's unemployment rate is projected to rise from 3.1% to 3.7% by 2027 and decline slightly to 3.6% by 2029.

Those numbers are 0.6% higher than the projected unemployment rate in the first quarter report, according to Florida Taxwatch.

As for the country's gross domestic product, the growth rate is expected to decline from 5.9% this year to 3.8% in 2029. Taking inflation into account, the growth of the country's real economic output will fall from 3% this year to 1.4% in 2025 and will remain stable until 2029.

The report also forecasts that per capita income will rise by 2.1% this year and in 2025, but will decline to 1.1% by 2029. The report says the 1% increase in per capita income suggests inflation will fall and Floridians' spending options will increase.”

The study also said the number of tourists visiting the state will decline from this year's year-on-year growth rate of 5.1% to a low of 2.7% in 2026 before rebounding by 2029 increases to 3.3%.

There were 146,199 visitors to the state in 2024 and that number is expected to increase to 170,133 by 2029.

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