San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers odds, preview and prediction – September 26

The San Diego Padres have already secured a playoff spot. They still have a chance to win the National League West if they can beat the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road on Thursday.

The Dodgers give Walker Buehler that start. Buehler faltered in 2024 with a 5.63 ERA and at least three runs allowed in 12 of his 15 pitching appearances that season.

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With 2.0 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed, Buehler's fielding independent rating of 5.68 is even higher than his ERA. He now faces a Padres offense that leads Major League Baseball with a .274 batting average against right-handed pitchers.

Joe Musgrove is tasked with outpacing Buehler on the mound for San Diego. While he owns a 3.95 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings, he has been a different pitcher since coming off the injured list on August 12th. He has a 2.05 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and zero or one run allowed in six of his eight starts since returning.

Despite ranking second in the league in total runs scored, the Dodgers have suffered a sharp decline in their offensive output at home compared to away, with fewer than 4.9 runs per game at home compared to nearly 5.4 runs per away game.

While this is one of the largest home-away separations in baseball, the Padres' performance increase on the road is the largest in the National League. Entering Wednesday, they were averaging nearly 5.1 runs per game on the road and just over 4.4 runs per game at home.

The San Diego Padres bullpen has also fared better down the stretch, ranking eighth in ERA since July 1 with a 3.45 ERA, while the Dodgers are 16th with a 4.29 ERA .

With Buehler struggling all season and the San Diego Padres playing their best on the road, the Padres will be looking for a big win on Thursday to keep their hopes of winning the division alive.

MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +105

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