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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics

With yesterday's wins by the Royals and Tigers, the Mariners were officially eliminated from the postseason on their day off. All those last-minute improvements didn't pay off and they'll spend the final three days of the regular season playing meaningless baseball against the A's and thinking about what could have been.

At a glance

athletics Sailors
athletics Sailors
Game 1 Friday September 27th | 7:10 p.m
LHP JP Sears RHP Luis Castillo
50% 50%
Game 2 Saturday September 28th | 6:40 p.m
RHP Joey Estes RHP Bryan Woo
49% 51%
Game 3 Sunday September 29th | 12:10 p.m
RHP Mitch Spence RHP Bryce Miller
53% 47%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team overview

overview athletics Sailors edge
overview athletics Sailors edge
Hitting (wRC+) 101 (8th in AL) 103 (6th in AL) Sailors
Fielding (FRV) -49 (14th) -2 (10.) Sailors
Starting Pitching (FIP) 114 (14th) 92 (3rd) Sailors
Bullpen (FIP) 96 (6th) 100 (9th) athletics

The A's just completed their final series in Oakland and will play the final days of this season away from their former home. The end of the M's season was sad and disappointing, but it doesn't begin to compare to the brutality that comes with a team being torn from its homeland. The end of the 2024 season cannot come soon enough.

Athletics lineup

player position Bats P.A K% BB% ISO wRC+
player position Bats P.A K% BB% ISO wRC+
Lawrence Butler RF L 442 23.3% 7.9% 0.233 135
Brent Rooker DH R 601 28.5% 9.7% 0.270 166
JJ Bleday CF L 629 19.1% 10.5% 0.198 121
Shea Langeliers C R 529 27.2% 7.6% 0.222 108
Tyler Soderstrom 1B L 200 25.0% 9.5% 0.186 112
Zack Gelof 2B R 538 34.0% 7.1% 0.154 83
Seth Brown LF L 389 28.0% 6.4% 0.150 91
Jacob Wilson SS R 95 10.5% 7.4% 0.071 84
Darell Hernaiz 3B R 131 19.8% 8.4% 0.043 48

From a preview of a previous series:

The A's have been shuffling through a lot of young fringe players in hopes of striking gold with a few of them this year, and they've discovered a few gems. Lawrence Butler was the most encouraging breakthrough; He had a WRC+ of 56 through June, but has dropped the numbers significantly to .314/.353/.692 over the past two months with tremendous production and a steady profile at the plate. He joins Brent Rooker as two big players who can solidify this lineup. Jacob Wilson, son of former Mariner Jack Wilson, is a highly regarded prospect who has flown through the farm system thanks to a batting average above .400 in 53 minor league games this year. He has ridiculous bat-handling skills, although he doesn't have the power to really exploit such a profile.

Likely pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer

New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

LHP JP Sears

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% EPOCH FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% EPOCH FIP
174 2/3 18.1% 6.3% 10.6% 38.0% 4.43 4.61
pitch frequency speed stuff+ whiff+ GDP+ xwOBA
Four-seam 36.5% 91.9 71 122 107 0.327
Sinkers 10.4% 90.0 85 72 84 0.344
Change 19.3% 84.0 84 61 105 0.319
Slider 9.2% 79.4 129 67 88 0.387
sweeper 24.6% 78.8 129 61 108 0.295

From a preview of a previous series:

JP Sears improved almost all of his peripherals last year, except for the one weakness he's always struggled with: his home run rate. He allowed 34 points in 2023, and that's the main reason his FIP exceeded his ERA and xFIP by more than half a run. To curb long ball issues, he switched his pitch mix this year to use his sweeper as his primary pitch while increasing the usage of his sinker. His flat four-seam fastball will always produce an above-average whiff of air thanks to its shape, but hitters simply crush it when they come into contact with it. The adjustments appear to have paid off; His ERA and FIP are much lower than last year and he has already racked up 1.2 fWAR, doubling his career total.


RHP Joey Estes

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% EPOCH FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% EPOCH FIP
122 2/3 17.3% 4.8% 10.1% 24.4% 4.99 4.86
pitch frequency speed stuff+ whiff+ GDP+ xwOBA
Four-seam 51.7% 92.4 79 80 95 0.369
Sinkers 2.8% 90.8
Change 11.2% 84.8 78 69 104 0.438
Slider 13.4% 81.7 126 66 89 0.305
sweeper 20.1% 78.2 126 62 123 0.201

From a preview of a previous series:

Joey Estes made his season debut against the Mariners in early May and held them to just a single run in five innings, then held them scoreless in a 6.1 inning start a month later. He had a pretty good start to his big league career; He has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio thanks to a fantastic walk rate. His fastball is his best pitch with a ton of life in the zone and pretty good control. His secondary performances are average or worse, although his two breaking balls have been promising this year.


RHP Mitch Spence

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% EPOCH FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% EPOCH FIP
147 19.2% 7.0% 12.1% 49.1% 4.35 4.20
pitch frequency speed stuff+ whiff+ GDP+ xwOBA
Sinkers 14.2% 91.9 40 101 107 0.298
cutter 39.0% 90.7 98 70 104 0.339
Change 1.7% 88.9
Curveball 11.9% 80.4 118 99 95 0.205
Slider 33.2% 84.3 120 77 92 0.325

From a preview of a previous series:

Mitch Spence was selected from the Yankees entered the Rule 5 Draft this offseason and spent the first month of his major league career pitching out of the bullpen. Injuries to Paul Blackburn, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling forced him into the starting lineup, where he enjoyed some success. He doesn't have overwhelming skills, but he does generate a lot of ground contact thanks to the natural drop at all of the pitches in his repertoire. His sweeping slider is his best pitch, and he also occasionally throws a 12-to-6 curveball to keep left-handed batters at bay.


The big picture:

AL West standings

team WL W% Games behind it Current form
team WL W% Games behind it Current form
x- Astros 86-73 0.541 WLLWL
Sailors 82-77 0.516 4.0 WLWLW
ranger 75-84 0.472 11.0 LWLWL
athletics 69-90 0.434 17.0 LLWLW
angel 63-96 0.396 23.0 LWLLL

The Astros clinched the division title on Tuesday and are far enough behind the Guardians in the standings to make their final series in Cleveland meaningless, aside from providing a possible preview of an ALDS matchup. The Angels were narrowly defeated by the White Sox, setting a franchise record for losses in a single season and denying Chicago a chance to make history.

By Vanessa

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