Storylines | Form is everything in autumn

It's fall, and you know what that means: The Audi MLS Cup Playoffs are just around the corner! It's that magical time of year when our league breaks the football norms and decides to award the championship trophy to the hottest team in the land, and I'm not talking about the temperature. No, I'm talking about form, which is really the key to winning the MLS Cup. Of course, you have to be good enough all year long to finish in the top two-thirds of the conference, but once the playoffs start, all that matters is how you've played recently.

To give you a picture of the playoffs and predict the future, I took a look at how some of the previous MLS Cup winners finished their regular seasons and did some math to figure out which Western Conference teams could threaten the Loons from a formal point of view. There's a lot of research and scattered thoughts in this book, but stick with it and you might just have a little fun. On the other hand, you might just be confused. Anyway, I was really crazy about this movie and enjoyed every second of it.

Like I said, it doesn't matter what seed you have come playoff time, it just matters how well you play. In fact, the fourth seed has won the Cup four times (2005, 2009, 2016 and 2021), with one of those teams even finishing the season under .500 (RSL 2009). Place in the league means nothing in the postseason, so forget about those numbers. They might as well be made up.

If you look at Columbus last season, you'll see that the principle is correct. They entered the playoffs as the third seed in the East, 12 points behind Cincinnati. But they finished the regular season with just one loss in their final eight games, picking up 15 points in that span. For anyone wondering, that's 1.88 points per game (ppg). Remember the number, okay?

However, beyond last season, some of the league's greatest MLS Cup successes came at the end of the regular season. The Sounders finished 2016 as the fourth seed in the West with 48 points, but after dropping just one of their final eight points, they had the momentum to go on and win the trophy, just like the Crew. Former Loons Osvaldo Alonso, Oniel Fisher and Tyler Miller were on that roster, which isn't to say they gave us some of that luck while they were here, but I'm not saying it's nothing; You know what I mean?

2021 NYCFC was a prime example of a surprise MLS Cup winner, and the 2015 Timbers also took the league by storm. The examples go on and on, but I digress. What's there to take away here? It doesn't matter how you start your MLS season or how you perform in the middle. The only time that Really It depends on the final stage.

Things were a little different back then; that is now. Let's talk more recent, relevant numbers! So much math today. My brain is still working, people! I looked at the form of every single Western Conference team since the end of the League Cup, added up their points and calculated their PPG over that period. Based on this, we'll find out exactly which teams are ready for the Dark Horse Run to the Cup and – spoiler alert – I think you'll like the results.

Each team has played between six and eight games since the League Cup. Houston is at the higher end of this spectrum, while the Galaxy, Rapids and SKC are all at the lower end. To illustrate, everyone else has played seven games each, and with almost everyone only having two games left, the form we're seeing right now is close enough to year-end form that I can use it for forecasting purposes. Don't you like it? I'm sorry. I'm in too deep at this point.

Everyone is currently at or above 1.00 ppg, showing the sometimes frustrating, sometimes gratifying parity of this league. Even San Jose, last in the league by nine points, records an average draw after the League Cup. Even if the playoffs are out of reach, fall form will come into play.

Unfortunately, Seattle currently leads the way with 16 points in their last seven games (2.29 ppg). The Galaxy are right behind at 2.00 ppg, which makes sense since both teams are in the top three spots in the West. But the third team in the form table? Not LAFC. It's Minnesota United.

Since the League Cup, the Loons have collected 13 points in seven games, which is enough for 1.86 points per game. This is eerily close to Columbus' form at the end of last season, so to speak. Houston also performs strongly at 1.75 ppg, but beyond that their form declines a bit as the conference progresses. Everyone is beatable right now, but your Loons are one of the hottest teams in the league. If they can keep up this weekend against Vancouver, who by the way is averaging just 1.29 ppg since the League Cup, they'll be primed for an exciting postseason push.