“Strong” solar storm warning: Two CMEs will hit Earth tomorrow

Get ready, sky watchers and tech enthusiasts! The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm warnings for October 4-6, 2024.

This warning comes as two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are expected to make their way to Earth this weekend.

A geomagnetic storm occurs when the solar wind – a stream of charged particles from the sun – collides with the Earth's magnetic field.

These storms can disrupt satellite operations, GPS systems and even power grids. Although powerful geomagnetic storms are fascinating to observe, they can have significant impacts on our daily lives.

X-class solar flares

A massive solar flare erupted from the sun on Thursday morning, sending waves of charged particles toward Earth.

This powerful burst of solar energy is causing scientists and space weather experts to keep a close eye on the potential impacts here on our planet, including the expected auroras in the lower United States.

Experts at the National Weather Service's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) reported that the outbreak, classified as X9.0, occurred at 8:18 a.m. Eastern Time on October 3.

This comes just days after another significant outburst from the same region on the Sun, known as Active Region 3842.

Understanding solar flares

Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation caused by the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots.

An X-class flare is among the most powerful and can cause significant disruption in the Earth's magnetosphere, affecting satellite operations, communications and even power grids.

The recent X9.0 burst is notable because it is one of the strongest we have seen this solar cycle. For comparison, only an X8.7 flare on May 14, 2024 surpassed it in intensity.

“Solar activity reached high levels with six M-class flares and one X-class flare,” the Space Weather Prediction Center noted. “The X9.0 occurred at 8:08 a.m. in region 3842.”

Two new CMEs

According to SWPC forecasters, “Strong geomagnetic storms are likely to occur as these CMEs reach Earth. Clocks of this length and size are rare, but not unheard of.”

These two CMEs were spotted at specific times on the Sun's southwestern limb:

• The first CME was observed at 03/2036 UTC and was associated with an M6/2b flare at 03/2028 UTC.

• The second CME came from another flare, an M4/1n, observed at 04/0455 UTC.

Both flares originated in Region 3842, a sunspot area known for its activity. Preliminary models suggest Earth's first CME could deliver a “glancing blow” on October 7.

On the trail of sunspots

Sunspots are cooler areas on the Sun's surface with intense magnetic activity. The regions mentioned – 3842, 3844, 3841, 3843 and the renumbered 3849 – are all areas of interest for scientists who monitor solar activity.

The activity of these regions fluctuates, with some growing, others declining and new ones emerging, such as Region 3849.

Solar wind activity

The solar wind speeds are constant and lie between 300 and 400 km/s. The total magnetic field fluctuated between 3 and 8 nanotesla (nT), with the Bz component fluctuating between +6 and -5 nT.

These parameters are expected to remain normal until the CMEs begin their journey to Earth, which will bring disruptions upon arrival.

What awaits you this weekend

The SWPC forecast suggests the first CME could reach Earth on October 4, with the second following about 24 hours later.

This close arrival could dampen solar winds initially, but they are expected to increase as the second CME occurs. The Earth's magnetic field can rise to G3 levels and in some cases even reach G4 (severe).

“The current geomagnetic forecast follows the CME-controlled WSA-Enlil run initialized at 03/1700 UTC on the SWPC website,” the meteorologists explained.

This model predicts a narrow 24-hour window between the two CME arrivals, but there is a margin of error of approximately ±8 hours due to velocity fluctuations.

Possible effects

Strong geomagnetic storms can produce beautiful auroras that are visible even at lower latitudes than usual. However, they can also disrupt communications systems and navigation satellites.

There could be fluctuations in the power grids and increased corrosion rates in pipelines. It is a mix of natural beauty and technological challenges.

Stay informed and prepared

As the weekend approaches, keep an eye on SWPC updates. “Stay tuned as we monitor this activity!” urged the forecasters. Whether you're a space enthusiast or worried about possible technical glitches, it's important to stay informed.

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