The best MLB bets today: odds, predictions and tips for Wednesday, September 25th

The best MLB bets today, September 25th:

Major League Baseball has 15 games scheduled for today, but the Braves and Mets will not play. MLB may be considering a contingency strategy to play elsewhere since it will be pouring with rain in Atlanta today and tomorrow. Right now, teams would have to play a doubleheader on Monday and then whoever has the wild card would have to play first thing Tuesday.

Hopefully everything else goes smoothly. We have a big battle for the AL Wild Card and then the hunt for the NL Wild Card, which may be on hold for a few days. Otherwise, the other big story is the final series at the Oakland Coliseum. It can be difficult to figure out who is invested and who is not.

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Still, keep an eye on the player odds. Shohei Ohtani has a .301 batting average. He's already had a historic season, but would like to finish at .300 or better. Manny Machado, Eugenio Suarez and Matt Olson all have 29 home runs. Rafael Devers, Jake Burger and Shea Langeliers have 28. Marcell Ozuna has 39. Kyle Schwarber and Brent Rooker have 38. Guys like round numbers and some may have contractual incentives to consider. Those are good betting opportunities this time of year.

Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publication, SHOP AROUND for best prices. Tracking sheet is Here.

Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates

6:40 p.m. ET

Let's start with one of those player benchmarks. Freddy Peralta comes into this game with 193 strikeouts. With nine strikeouts against the Phillies, he has earned a chance at his second consecutive 200-strikeout season. He'll be the Brewers' starter for Game 1 in the Wild Card Round on Tuesday, so he's got an extra day of rest, and baseball veteran Pat Murphy seems like a guy who understands and appreciates chasing a number.

A lot of teams strike out a lot this month. The Pirates have the 12th highest K%, but 24.2% is a lot of misses. They have a 76 wRC+ this month and I have to think the whole Rowdy Tellez thing really alienated and upset this ballclub in the last week of the season. I can't imagine there will be many committed or excited personalities again to finish the season.

The Pirates have lost eight of 11 games since beating the Marlins and have no chance of finishing .500 or better, with only Paul Skenes' last start on Saturday as a guarantee of success.

Peralta has a 13.1% SwStr% this year and has made five straight starts at 11.8% or better, although he hasn't had many strikeouts lately. He still has bad luck and I think he'll have plenty of it here.

Selection: Freddy Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians (-148, 7.5)

6:40 p.m. ET

Guardians manager Stephen Vogt has done a great job as a rookie captain and I think he has an incredible feel for the game. Tonight, Jakob Junis faces Joey Cantillo, Cantillo's final start of the regular season. I think he's shown enough to be part of the playoff roster for Cleveland, especially as another left-handed hitter alongside Tim Herrin and as a guy who can go multiple innings.

He's been pretty good lately too, allowing three runs (two earned) on eight hits in his last 16.1 innings. In that time, he's played against the White Sox, Rays and Twins. The Reds offense is trudging toward the finish line. They were stopped by Tanner Bibee last night and have a wOBA of .294 with a wRC+ of 82 here in September.

I think that's one spot where Cantillo gets a little more freedom. When he pitched a perfect game against the White Sox until the seventh inning, he threw 99 pitches. In his next outing, he threw five shutouts against the Rays, but was pulled on 78 pitches. In his next start, he was bumped up to 86 pitches.

I would imagine Cantillo will get a chance to get over 90 here. He has an extra day of rest and Vogt's Guardians secured a bye in the AL playoffs with last night's win. He'll definitely want to keep the relievers as fit as possible since they don't start the postseason until Saturday, October 5th, but I also think he's very conscious of the workload these guys face.

Cantillo's Outs Recorded Prop is set at 15.5 with +125 on the Over. I think that's worth a shot. Progressive Field is a decent pitcher's stadium when it gets cooler, and Cantillo is left-handed. The Reds have a wOBA of .226 and a wRC+ of 35 against lefties over the last 30 days.

Selection: Joey Cantillo (CLE) Over 15.5 outs recorded (+125)