The hurricane center reduces the likelihood of an Atlantic system developing

ORLANDO – The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday lowered its forecast that an Atlantic system approaching the Caribbean will develop into the next tropical depression or storm of the season, while also forecasting a second system already in the Caribbean , keep an eye on.

According to the NHC's tropical forecast at 8 a.m., the broad low pressure area in the central tropical Atlantic was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“This system is forecast to move generally west to west-northwest and environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive to gradual development during the second half of this week,” forecasters said. “As the system approaches the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands later this week, a tropical depression could form.”

The NHC gives it a 30 percent chance of developing in two days and 40 percent in the next seven days.

That's down from the 60% forecast earlier in the week.

If it developed sufficiently, it could become Tropical Storm Nadine.

The NHC also tracked an extensive low pressure area with showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

“Gradual development is possible if the system remains afloat while moving slowly northwest toward Central America,” forecasters said. “Regardless of developments, locally heavy rainfall may occur later this week in parts of Central America.”

The NHC gives it a 10% chance of evolving in the next two days and 20% in the next seven days.

Colorado State University's two-week outlook predicts hurricane activity in the Atlantic will likely be above normal.

“Later in the second week there are some signs of possible development in the western Caribbean,” said CSU meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 13 named storms, nine of which were hurricanes, including three that struck Florida.

Hurricane season lasts until November 30th.

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