The Yankees pounce on the Mets' rebound and let's revisit the MLB playoff debate

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It was a big night for New York teams, the Dodgers' ploy didn't work a second time, and we take a look at Jayson Stark's examination of the playoff format. I am Levi Weaverhere with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!

NLCS Game 2: Mets recover to even series

Mets 7, Dodgers 3 – What if Francisco Lindor had struck out in the first inning last night instead of opening the game? It's likely that the opponent wouldn't have been the Mets; Lindor was the team's undisputed MVP this year. But in the 2019-2020 offseason, Andy McCullough reports, the Dodgers tried to make Lindor a Dodger.

It's a fascinating exercise in what-could-have-been thinking. Heck, it's possible the Dodgers wouldn't be here without Mookie Betts, who they acquired in the offseason when the Lindor deal fell through.

In any case, the Mets version of Lindor in this timeline broke the Dodgers' record-setting 33-inning scoreless streak last night when he hit a leadoff home run. Mark Vientos hit a grand slam in a five-run second inning, and it looked like the Mets were getting revenge for LA's Game 1 blowout.

Instead, things got a little tricky late on. In the eighth inning, with the score 6-3 and two runs, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza had to call closer Edwin Díaz for a four-out save. After a sure run in the bottom of the ninth, Díaz gave up a single and a walk before striking out Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Freddie Freeman to tie the series at 1-1.

For Vientos, whose grand slam came after an intentional walk to load the bases, the “personal” moment was just the latest in what has become quite a long list of big Mets moments this October. This stole momentum from the series as the teams fly cross-country to Queens for an off day before Walker Buehler takes on Luis Severino in Game 3 (tomorrow at 8:08 p.m. ET, FS1).

Ken's notebook: Dodgers face bullpen game questions

Out of my latest column:

LOS ANGELES – The level of difficulty is high. The margin for error is small. The Los Angeles Dodgers played a masterful bullpen game in Game 4 of the Division Series. But their plan quickly went awry in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series on Monday and they never recovered in a 7-3 loss to the New York Mets.

Manager Dave Roberts' decisions are fair. Even though he had a day off on Tuesday, why didn't he take advantage of debt-heavy resources early on instead of avoiding them altogether? Why didn't he pull rookie Edgardo Henriquez in the ninth after a one-out walk against Pete Alonso with the deficit 6-3 and the top of the Dodgers order about to be hit? Why did he cope with so little urgency when his team was just three wins away from the World Series?

All reasonable questions. Roberts revealed that he was missing two leverage relievers – not only left-back Alex Vesia, who is out of the series due to an injury, but also right-back Daniel Hudson, who is 37 and said he would only be available in an emergency. after reporting muscle soreness following his 20-pitch appearance in Game 1. As a result, Roberts needed nine or more outs from rookie righty Landon Knack, who had a 3.65 ERA in 69 innings during the regular season. Knack entered the game in the second and allowed five runs in two innings, putting the Dodgers behind 6-0.

The problem with any debate about Roberts' decisions is that the Dodgers never should have relied on Knack so much. They found themselves in this position because they were hampered by their numerous pitching injuries this season. And if Game 3 and/or 4 starters Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto struggle, their plans could fall apart further.

After winning the first game of the series, the Dodgers were in nowhere near as desperate a situation as they were after losing to the San Diego Padres in Game 4 of the DS. Vesia and Hudson were both pitchers that night, and Roberts only used Knack in the ninth for an 8-0 lead. The team's scoreless streak eventually reached 33 innings, setting a postseason record. But continuing to expect perfection from every helper was unrealistic. Ryan Brasier, the opener, had three balls hit at 103.6 mph or faster in the first inning, including Francisco Lindor's home run.

What if Roberts had said, Banda in the second, Kopech in the third, stacking heavily indebted relievers one by one and avoiding Knack as long as possible? The Dodgers might have been able to keep the score closer, but in Roberts' mind, he had to resort to Knack at some point. Knack, a second-round pick out of East Tennessee State in 2020, could one day be a starter in the middle of the rotation. But he's not your classic postseason pivot at the moment.

More here.

ALCS Game 1: The Yankees take a 1-0 lead in the Bronx

Yankees 5, Guardians 2 — One thing about having a bullpen without lights as your greatest weapon is that you can't protect a lead if you never have one. That was the case last night with the Guardians, who trailed starting in the third inning.

But the last four runs did Scoring with a reliever on the mound. After starter Alex Cobb loaded the bases with three walks in the third inning, reliever Joey Cantillo allowed second and third runs to score on wild pitches (with a walk in between).

However, Cantillo's gaffes didn't make the difference in the game. The Yankees scored again in the fourth and seventh innings (the latter coming on Giancarlo Stanton's final home run). Those two runs, coupled with Soto's solo shot in the third, would have been enough to overcome the single runs Cleveland scored in the sixth and eighth.

So maybe I'm wrong. Maybe sometimes preventative protection is the best way to protect a lead.

Either way it didn't happen. The Guardians' vaunted pitching staff was unable to get the job done against a Yankees lineup that suddenly looked much deeper when Anthony Rizzo – returning to action after a break with two broken fingers – hit the No. 8 spot .

Meanwhile, the Yankees got a standout performance from Carlos Rodón to take a 1-0 lead in tomorrow's match between Gerrit Cole and Tanner Bibee (7:38 p.m. ET, TBS).

Debates: Let's talk about the playoff format

We linked Jayson Stark's story about the playoff format in yesterday's Windup, but I wanted to come back to it today when we have a little more space because it's a topic that comes up a lot!

Put simply, the question is: Is this the fairest format or would a few small changes make it “fairer”?

To be fair, of course, it would be most fair if the teams with the best regular-season records had the best chance of playing in the World Series. That's not to say the deck should be heavily stacked in those teams' favor, but as Stark points out, both the NBA and NHL – which don't have byes – are seeing their top-rated teams win their first matchups at a higher rate than the MLB.

But that's what I appreciate about Stark: He always goes one level deeper. And he noted that even before the new format, the teams with the best records weren't exactly winning at an overwhelming rate:

• 1998–2011 (no wildcard round): 51.5 percent
• 2012–21* (One-Game Wildcard Round): 54.1 percent
• 2022-24 (current format): 50 percent.

*Excluded in 2020

It's only been three years, so we'll have to wait a few more years before we can say that having a bye is a disadvantage (by the way, three of the four teams with a bye have a head start this year).

You should definitely read Stark's column; He examines the topic from almost every angle imaginable, taking numbers into account at every step.

But if you want My Opinion? I think baseball is just a high variance sport. Basketball doesn't have five different point guards playing every fifth day, but that's how starting pitchers work. In ice hockey, defensemen don't have to take as many shots as the center, but that's how shot commands work.

This is one of the reasons baseball is the only sport to reach triple digits in the regular season. It takes a large sample size to truly determine the best team. Even a seven-game series can be a crapshoot.

Stark concludes: “If you don’t want surprises, then don’t have playoffs.”

Handshakes and high fives

(Top photo: Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)