Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada football team plays at San Jose State on Saturday. Chris Murray of Nevada Sports Net breaks down the game against the Spartans with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in collaboration with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Nevada (2-3, 0-0) at San Jose State (3-1, 0-0)

When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m

Where: CEFCU Stadium (capacity 21,520)

Surface: AstroTurf

Weather: maximum value of 99; Low of 70

TV/Radio: TruTV/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: MAX

Betting line: SJSU at 7; total 51.5

All-time series: Nevada leads 19-7-0

Last matchup: SJSU won 35-28 in San Jose on October 29, 2022

Three keys to the game

1. Win the Takeaway Battle: If you've watched an SJSU game this season, you've seen a lot of turnovers. The Spartans have forced 12 takeaways in four games while giving the ball away 10 times. These 12 takeaways are the fifth most common nationwide; The 10 giveaways lead the FBS. The ball changed hands quite often on the field for the Spartans. That wasn't the case in Nevada, where there are three takeaways and five giveaways. The Wolf Pack attributed much of SJSU's ability to carry SJSU to the Spartans' opponents being sloppy. So we'll see if Nevada plays a clean game and if it can wreak more havoc defensively than we've seen so far. SJSU has committed multiple turnovers in every game this season, so a Wolf Pack not giving the ball away would put the Spartans in uncharted territory.

2. Limit Nick Nash: Nash, the former SJSU quarterback turned star wideout, is the third player in FBS history with more than 50 catches and more than eight receiving touchdowns in the first four games of a season. The others are Michael Crabtree (2007) of Texas Tech and Troy Edwards (1998) of Louisiana Tech. Nash was unstoppable; Nevada won't exclude him. But the wolf pack must limit its influence. Nash has 35 more balls than any other SJSU player, so he will score 12-20 in the Spartans' pass-happy offense. And while we could put pressure on Nevada's secondary to slow Nash down, the sub-standard pack pass rush also plays a big role in making that happen. If SJSU QB Emmett Brown – not the guy from “Back to the Future” – has time to throw, he will succeed.

3. Methodical packing approaches: The Wolfpack must resist the urge to make this game a shootout as that situation would favor SJSU. Nevada is tied for 49 points, but its formula is to limit the number of possessions with a run-first approach and use up the clock. And that should work against the Spartans, who like to drop into deep coverage and generally play a zone scheme. While SJSU has a good defensive line led by an all-conference nose guard with active linebackers behind them, there is some potential vulnerability in run defense. Wolf Pack quarterback Brendon Lewis will also have to be patient when approaching the zone as the Spartans want the opponent to throw underneath. That should also suit Nevada quite well. However, it will be important for Nevada to win the possession battle.

forecast

San Jose State 30, Nevada 24: This game is a difficult choice. SJSU has been better so far this season and has home-court advantage, but the Spartans played a far easier schedule of three games against opponents – Sacramento State, Air Force, Kennesaw State – and have yet to beat an FBS team (0-8 in such games) . SJSU's only loss was a double-overtime thriller against a good but not great Washington State team. Nevada has played a much tougher lineup and should be more battle-tested. But unless the Wolf Pack wins the turnover battle – our No. 1 key – and gets a strong pass rush, I think SJSU's passing game will prove to be a little too much for Nevada. Season balance: 4-1 (straight up); 3-2 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into sports in Northern Nevada. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.