Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada football team hosts Oregon State at Mackay Stadium on Saturday. Chris Murray of Nevada Sports Net breaks down the game against the Spartans with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in collaboration with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Oregon State (4-1) and Nevada (2-4)

When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m

Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)

Surface: FieldTurf

Weather: maximum value of 75; Low of 42

TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: None

Betting line: Oregon State by 3; total 47.5

All-time series: Oregon State leads 3-1

Last matchup: Nevada won 37-35 on September 15, 2018 (in Reno).

Three keys to the game

1. Stout Run Defense: Both teams will run the ball early and often, meaning a fast game! Oregon State averages 49 carries for 5.4 yards per attempt. Nevada averages 38.5 carries for 5.0 yards per attempt. Marginal beaver. But the Wolf Pack was stronger against the run, limiting opponents to 4.5 yards per carry while Oregon State allowed 5.9 yards per carry. The Beavers' numbers rank sixth-worst nationally, making this a good matchup for Nevada's offense. The bigger question is whether the Wolf Pack can limit Oregon State's ground game, which has produced 17 touchdowns (the Beavers have thrown just two). Oregon State can throw the ball — QB Gevani McCoy threw for more than 300 yards against Nevada last season while playing for Idaho — but the Wolf Pack run defense will be front and center, and that group has had in the last three Playing problems (5.20 yards per minute). Carrying allowed).

2. Reduce Penalties: Nevada's yellow flag problems continue as the Wolf Pack leads the nation in penalties. Nevada has taken at least eight penalties in five of its six games (the only penalty that didn't occur was in the two-point win at Troy, when it was called just four times). The Wolfpack exceeded the 80-yard mark on penalty kicks five times; Oregon State has yet to play a game with even 70 yards of penalties. The Beavers were by far the more disciplined team between the two, and the Wolf Pack simply isn't good enough to overcome unnecessary penalties, particularly unsportsmanlike conduct, which seems to crop up multiple times in every Wolf Pack outing. Coach Jeff Choate has preached to his players the need to avoid these, but they still happen. And if they keep happening, the Wolf Pack is digging its own grave game after game. Nevada needs to play smarter football this weekend.

3. Fourth Quarter Execution: It should be a close game, and Nevada hasn't prevailed in those situations this season. The Wolf Pack is 1-3 in games decided by five points or fewer, with a three-point loss to Georgia Southern, a four-point loss to San Jose State and a five-point loss to SMU. There's also a two-point win against Troy. Nevada will have to perform better in the final frame than it did earlier this season, as the Wolf Pack was outscored 45-24 in the fourth quarter. Oregon State has played just one close game this year, winning in double overtime against Colorado State last week. In 2023, Oregon State is 1-3 in one-possession games and is terribly young on defense (the Beavers' offense is much more experienced). Nevada continues to have the ability to win games in the fourth quarter, but hasn't capitalized on those situations as much as it would have liked. Saturday should provide another opportunity for this.

forecast

Nevada 28, Oregon State 24: Even though Oregon State is 4-1 and Nevada is 2-4, these teams are awfully similar. They rank nearly identical to the Wolf Pack at 88th overall in the ESPN Football Power Index in offense (Oregon State 67; Nevada 65), defense (Oregon State 105; Nevada 101) and special teams (Oregon State 101; Nevada 110). and the 93rd-ranked Beavers. Based on these metrics, Nevada should be a 3.5-point favorite and not a 3-point underdog (the cutoff started at seven). Oregon State leads the nation in time of possession (36:37), Nevada is seventh (33:41) behind run-first offenses designed to wear down opponents. I'm giving the Wolfpack the preference because their defensive front seven is better against the run, but this game should come down to the final possession and Nevada will likely pull out a win in that situation. Season balance: 5-1 (straight up); 4-2 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into sports in Northern Nevada. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.