Top picks from the NFL betting splits for Sunday, October 13th

Today we have a packed NFL Week 6 Sunday slate with 12 games to choose from. Let's examine where the smart money is using our VSiN NFL betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

***Top NFL Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to tips, public betting peak data and live video broadcast from VSiN Upgrade to VSiN Pro. Get your first month for less than $10.*

The Colts (2-3) fell just short to the Jaguars, 37-34, but managed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs. Conversely, the Titans (1-3) just secured their first win of the season, defeating the Dolphins 31-12 and winning by 2.5 points. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The Colts are on everyone's lips, with 68% of spread bets supporting Indianapolis. However, despite the one-sided support, we have seen the line shift completely towards the Titans +1.5 to -2.5. This signals a sharp reversal line “from dog to favorite” in Tennessee, as the line has moved drastically in their direction despite being on the unpopular side. The Titans receive just 32% of the spread bets but 40% of the spread dollars, a sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. Tennessee enjoys a notable Rest vs. Tired advantage as they have a bye while the Colts played on Sunday and are now playing their second straight road game. Favorites after a bye are 170-138 ATS (55%) with an 8% ROI since 2005. The Titans also have buy-low value versus sell-high as a “bad” ATS team (1-3) “good” ATS team (4-1). Those who want to chase the strong Tennessee move but are wary of putting up points in a potentially close game could instead opt to play the Titans on the moneyline at -145.

The Texans (4:1) narrowly overtook the Bills 23:20 and are considered 1.5 point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (1-4) narrowly lost to the Dolphins 15-10, losing as 2-point home favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and coverage by the Texans, and 79% of the spread bets are on points. This one-sided support pushed Houston from -6.5 to -7. However, when it was announced that Drake Maye would be making his first NFL start in place of the ineffective Jacoby Brissett, we saw a strong buyback from the Patriots at the key number of +7, bringing the ceiling back down to +6.5. Essentially, we are now back where we started, which is evidence that the Patriots' line is severely frozen as the line has barely moved despite the Texans being such a popular play. New England only receives 21% of the spread bets, making this one of the best “betting against the public” games of the day. Big Dogs who score 6 points or more are 16-2 ATS (89%) this season. The Patriots have corresponding betting value as the approximate touchdown dog in a game with a low total (38), with the lower number of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. CJ Stroud is just 4-9 ATS (31%) in his career as a favorite. New England also has a buy-low value, having been unable to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite that won and covered.

The Bengals (1-4) narrowly lost to the Ravens 41-38 in overtime and were unable to cover as a 2.5-point home winner. On the other hand, the Giants (2:3) just shocked the Seahawks 29:20 and won by 7 points. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as an early 5.5-point road favorite. That number was quickly reduced to -4.5 and now we see the Bengals down to -3.5. Essentially all moves and liabilities have fallen in favor of the Giants and points. This move is particularly notable because the public is hammering the Bengals (77% of spread bets), but the sharp reverse line is siding with the unpopular home-dog Giants. One of the contrarian games of the week, New York received just 23% of the spread bets in a nationally televised, heavily-betted Sunday Night Football showdown. Primetime Dogs are 126-102 ATS (55%) since 2020. Brian Daboll is 21-11 ATS (66%) as the Giants' head coach. Daniel Jones is 29-22 ATS (57%) as a Dog. New York has the better defense, allowing 20.8 PPG (11th), while the Bengals give up 29 PPG (31st). The total started at 45 and rose to 49 before strong buybacks brought it back down to 47. Some stores have even dropped to 46.5. The unders in primetime this season are 10-9 and 170-116 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. If a primetime game has a total of 47 or more, the under is 24-11 (69). %) with an ROI of 28% since 2022.