Tropical influx from the Gulf of Mexico fueling downpours in Florida

Sea surface temperatures are warm enough for tropical development, but the FOX Forecast Center warns that hostile high-altitude winds will help keep significant development at bay next week.

The death toll rises to over 200 a week after Helene decimated southeastern communities

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest precipitation is expected to come from the Interstate 4 corridor and farther south, where 4 to 6 inches of rain could fall over a widespread area next week.

A look at the flash flood threat in Florida Sunday through Tuesday.

(FOX Weather)

Since much of the rain will be spread over several days, widespread flooding is not expected. However, if repeated thunderstorms hit the same region, problems could arise.

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The region expected to be affected is further south of where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as places like Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

“We will see rain across much of the Florida Peninsula at least late this weekend and into next week,” Norcross said. “And we’re paying attention to the possibility of more southerly development and seeing what happens with that.”

In addition to rainfall, rough seas will lead to the risk of increased currents and erosion on beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

FLORIDA ALLIGATOR FINDS A BREAK TO SUN ON THE BEACH IN RAINY WEATHER

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If there is no tropical development, is hurricane season over?

If a tropical cyclone – be it a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – does not form from the current severe weather area, that does not mean that the hurricane season for the eastern Gulf of Mexico is over.

Waters in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf remain sufficiently warm for development, and October is typically the busiest month for landings in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, September 10th.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is November 21, when Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses an immediate threat to landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.