Troy vs. Arkansas State Prediction College Football Tips 10/26/24

Arkansas State (4-3) vs. Troy (1-6)

Game Info: Saturday, October 26, 2024 at 7:00 p.m. (Centennial Bank Stadium)

Betting Odds: Arkansas State -7.5 / Troy +7.5 — Over/Under: 51.5 Click here for the latest odds

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In this article we formulate a Troy vs. Arkansas State prediction for this college football game on Saturday, October 26th at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Let's take a look at the prediction for this matchup in Week 9.

Troy Trojans betting preview

The Troy Trojans are 1-6 (0-3) this year after losing to South Alabama 25-9 in their last game. Troy trailed 19-3 at halftime and they were never able to get back into the game. The Trojans had a 318-167 lead overall, lost the turnover battle 3-0 and were 4:14 into the third period of the game. Matthew Caldwell threw for 142 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while Devonte Ross caught seven passes for 70 yards and a score.

Troy also has losses to Nevada, Memphis, Iowa, ULM and Texas State, but they have a win against Florida A&M. The Troy offense scored 19 points per game with 192.7 passing yards and 115.9 rushing yards per game, while the defense allowed 27.4 points per game this season. The Trojans are 44.7% on third down and 3-9 on fourth down so far this season. The quarterback situation in Troy was less than ideal this year, but Damien Taylor led the team with 422 rushing yards and two scores.

Arkansas State Red Wolves betting preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 4-3 (2-1) this season after defeating Southern Miss 44-28 in their last game. Arkansas State led 21-7 after the first quarter and 28-21 at halftime and was able to pull away in the second half and take the win. The Red Wolves defeated Southern Miss 467-369 overall, winning the turnover battle 3-0 and going 3:14 into the third period of the game. Jaylen Raynor threw for 186 yards and three touchdowns, while Ja'Quez Cross threw for 127 yards and a score.

Arkansas State also has wins against Central Arkansas, Tulsa and South Alabama, but they have three losses against Michigan, Iowa State and Texas State. Arkansas State's offense scored 25.1 points per game with 236.6 passing yards and 131.6 rushing yards per game, while its defense allowed 31.4 points per game this season. The Red Wolves are 39.3% on third down and 9-11 on third down in seven games. Jaylen Raynor has completed 60.6% of his passes for 1,518 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions, while Ja'Quez Cross has completed 334 yards and a score.

Why Arkansas State will cover

Arkansas State has won seven of its last eight home games.

Troy has lost seven of its last eight games against teams not ranked in the AP rankings.

Arkansas State has prevailed in nine of its last games as the home favorite on October 10th.

Troy has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games against conference opponents.

Total score facts

Each of Troy's last eight games in October fell UNDER the total score.

Five of Arkansas State's last six games as October favorites have exceeded the point total.

Matchup/League Facts

Arkansas State ranks 9th among FBS teams with 4th down conversion percentage (81.8) this season.

Arkansas State ranks 122nd among FBS teams in yards allowed per game this season (447.1).

Troy ranks 124th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (2.4).

Troy ranks 124th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.7).