Troy vs. South Alabama Prediction and Best Bets – College Football Week 8

Troy will be looking for its first win over an FBS team this season when it takes on South Alabama for the belt tonight.

The Trojans are 1-5 with just one win over Florida A&M and are hoping two weeks off will be enough for their starting quarterback to return. The Jaguars aren't doing much better at 2-4, but they have played a tougher schedule and were unlucky to lose to Arkansas State last time out.

Find out why we're betting on the Jags running back to beat paydirt in our Troy vs. South Alabama predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 15.

Troy vs. South Alabama prediction and best bet

My best choice
Da'Marion Bothwell any time touchdown (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The South Alabama Jaguars will win this game because of their rushing attack, and the Troy Trojans will look to stop three different players. When Gio Lopez isn't throwing the ball, he's either fighting with his legs or passing it to running backs Da'Marion “Fluff” Bothwell and Kentrel Bullock.

And unlike most teams, there is no specific bell cow. Bothwell is the starter on the depth chart, but his 55 runs are just over the 52 runs he amassed this season.

However, Bothwell scored six touchdowns while Bullock only scored three touchdowns, and it's very likely he will score even more touchdowns tonight. Not that it will be difficult, considering how most of the backers destroyed the Trojans.

Memphis running back Mario Anderson scored twice in his team's win over Troy, as he and teammate Greg Desrosiers ran for more than 59 yards on the day. Kaleb Johnson also reached the end zone twice and ran for 173 yards in Iowa's win. His backup Jaziun Patterson also had a strong day with 72 yards and a score on eight carries.

II expect both South Alabama running backs to have solid games, as the two tend to split runs fairly evenly, but Bothwell has the majority of his team's runs in the red zone, and three of the four touchdowns he scored against FBS The opponent's score came from him inside the 15-yard line.

Bothwell is a tough runner, a 5-foot-10, 219-pound fullback who loves to rush defenders. Troy's run defense allows 5.6 yards per carry, due in large part to missed tackles. The Trojans have already missed 55 of them this season, which is why they rank 98th in Early Down EPA/Play and 114th in Third Down Success.

Troy's defense isn't much better than the Appalachian State unit that punished Bothwell. The Mountaineers struggled to bring Bothwell down as he gained 75 yards after contact. He also had a breakaway rate of over 50%, picked up five first downs and found the end zone twice.

I expect a similar performance against Troy. He struggled in South Alabama's last two games against LSU and Arkansas State, but he's had nearly two weeks to rest and get healthy.

Caesars' -110 odds represent tremendous value as an outlier, so I would quickly capitalize on it. The same game is -150 on FanDuel and -225 on bet365, and I expect it to move quickly. I would play this at -130 or longer.

Troy vs. South Alabama, Match Game Parlay (SGP)

Da'Marion Bothwell at any time during the touchdown

Gio Lopez 40+ rushing yards

South Alabama -16.5

Gio Lopez will face a Troy defense that is subpar in passing and rarely sacks the quarterback, but is also prone to losing big days to dual-threat quarterbacks.

Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud ran for 72 yards on seven carries as his team beat the Trojans, and Lopez ran for 105 yards and a score against App State. For him, this is an accessible floor.

Troy has played five FBS schools this season and the Trojans have lost all five games by an average margin of 13 points. Memphis, Iowa and Texas State all won by at least 17 wins, and I think South Alabama adds to that list.

The Jaguars have an offense capable of controlling the clock, winning the battle in the trenches and putting up points that the Trojans can't match. I expect them to not only cover the lead, but also win within three points of the Sun Belt's top offense.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Troy vs South Alabama odds

Troy vs South Alabama live odds

Troy vs. South Alabama opening odds

• Distribution between Troy and South Alabama: South Alabama -11.5
• Troy vs South Alabama Moneyline: Troy +400, South Alabama -550
• Troy vs South Alabama Over/Under: 56.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Troy vs. South Alabama spread and over/under analysis

• The Jaguars are the 13.5-point favorite, with the spread changing from -11.5 on Sunday. Both teams are 2-4 ATS this season.
• Troy has won the last six meetings between these rivals, covering the margin each time, but this Trojan team is not the same team we saw last season under Jon Sumrall, and they rank in the bottom half in almost every major category from FBS. South Alabama's offense will be impressive in a game that should be similar to its 48-14 win over App State.
• The total has fallen two points since the opening level of 56.5. That makes sense considering the minors are 4-2 in Troy games and 3-2 in South Alabama's six games. The U-Bahn also finished 4-1 in the last five matches.
• That's a tricky number, but I'm leaning into this one – even more so if Goose Crowder can't quarterback Troy. I think the Jaguars put up enough points to increase the point total, but Tucker Kilcrease is a downgrade over Crowder, and Troy's passing performance may not be good enough as he takes snaps.

Troy vs South Alabama betting trend worth knowing

Troy has been below its first quarter total in 12 of its last 14 games, with +9.53 units and an ROI of 56%. Find more college football betting trends for Troy vs. South Alabama.

Information about the Troy vs. South Alabama game

Troy vs. South Alabama, recent injuries

Weather between Troy and South Alabama

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