Trump gets good news as registered Democrats drop 18% in key swing county

The gap between registered Republican and Democratic voters in Pennsylvania's key Erie County narrowed between 2020 and 2024, potentially giving former President Donald Trump a boost.

Although there are more Democratic supporters (80,940) than Republican supporters (71,439), the number of those joining the Democratic Party has fallen by 18 percent in four years. In 2020, almost 99,000 were registered with the party.

Erie, in the battleground state's northwest, voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but won by just 1 percent.

With fewer potential supporters this time, Vice President Kamala Harris, who was in the county Monday night, may have a bigger job on her hands to ensure victory.

Earlier this year, Erie was named one of the top seven swing counties in the poll, meaning it could play a crucial role in deciding the next president of the United States.

“Erie County has voted winner in 25 of the last 28 statewide elections, making it one of the most 'swinging' swing counties in the United States,” said Dr. Joe Morris, chair of the political science department at Mercyhurst University, told YourErie in August.

The county was joined by other swing states considered crucial to victory, including Maricopa County in Arizona, Richmond County in Georgia and Oakland County in Michigan.

President Barack Obama won Erie in both 2008 and 2012, but it turned red for Trump in 2016 before turning blue again in 2020.

Although it makes up just 2 percent of Pennsylvania's population, its tendency to swing back and forth has drawn the attention of political candidates and pundits alike.

When Harris spoke Monday night, she came down hard on her opponent, branding him “unstable” and warning her supporters that a second term for Trump would be dangerous for the country. Accompanied by video clips for the first time, Harris' speech was one of the sharpest attacks on the Republican to date.

Despite an apparent decline in registered voters, Erie County Democratic Chairman Sam Talarico told NPR in early October that there had been an uptick in enthusiasm since Harris became the party's nominee.

“I think there are a lot of people, especially younger people, who just didn't want to vote,” he said. “And Kamala Harris’ performance on stage energized her.”

Trump visited the county two weeks ago, where he attacked Harris over her response to Hurricane Helene, before saying he was in Erie to meet with “the workers,” citing the area's working-class roots . The former president reportedly still owes the region thousands of dollars for costs related to his previous rallies.

Kush Desai, spokesman for Team Trump from Pennsylvania, said Newsweek in a statement that Republicans' outreach efforts in the state have been successful.

“Pennsylvanians in Erie County and across the Commonwealth have seen the peace, prosperity and stability of the first Trump administration, as well as the disaster, failure and incompetence of the Harris-Biden administration – which Kamala Harris plans to extend with another Hand experienced four years,” said Desai.

“That's why our grassroots voter outreach program has been so successful, reducing the Democrats' registered voter advantage in Pennsylvania by nearly half, as we deliver our message: 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago?' deliver to voters wherever they are: on their doorsteps, on the phone and even on social media.

Erie County numbers also showed a slight decline in Republican registrations to 71,439 from 74,620 four years ago.

Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral College votes could be crucial for either candidate, and the race remains close. Recent polls showed Harris with a one-point lead over Trump, while other polls showed a much narrower picture.

“Erie is voting for Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania is going to vote for the president,” Sen. John Fetterman told CNN on Monday. “People discuss how Pennsylvania is a small version of the United States and Erie is a smaller version of Pennsylvania. There are rural, suburban and urban cores.”

Newsweek the Harris campaign emailed for comment Tuesday afternoon.