Trump's polymarket odds are over 60% as election betting markets shift

Topline

Betting markets continued to move toward predicting a win for former President Donald Trump on Thursday, the latest evidence that money was flowing into bets in support of another Trump presidency, despite poll data less than three weeks before the election pointing to a far more evenly sized margin Division between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris points out day.

Important facts

Cons

A betting odds of around 60% does not mean that Trump has a 60% to 40% lead in polls, but rather suggests that election bettors expect Trump to win around 60 out of 100 election simulations (remember losing sports teams often win games despite sports betting rules). . And poll-based election models are almost exactly split: Statistician Nate Silver's model gives Trump a 50.2% chance of winning next month, compared to 49.5% for Harris, while FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 53% to 46% lead. assigns. National polls favor Harris, with the latest weighted data from Real Clear Polling giving Harris a lead of 49.2% to 47.7%. There are also questions about what is driving the dramatic shift in betting odds despite mixed poll data, and Silver, who advises Polymarket, wrote last week that it was possible that a Trump-leaning demographic on the sites could skew the data toward more Trump -Rates as justified by the data. The purpose of the polls is to survey smaller groups that are representative of the broader U.S. voter population, regardless of race, age and other demographics.

tangent

The emerging election betting market landscape is not the only financial tool leading to a Trump victory. Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, which is primarily owned by Trump, have risen 86% in October, with the low-volume social media company's stock movement often seen as an indicator of Trump's election chances . And “you're seeing evidence” in the broader stock market that investors are “very confident that Trump will win,” billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller told Bloomberg on Thursday. Druckenmiller pointed to the outperformance of bank stocks and cryptocurrencies that Trump promised to deregulate as evidence; The S&P 500's financials sector has risen 7% over the past month, the best-performing of the S&P's 13 sectors, while Bitcoin has risen 15% over the past month, hitting its highest level since August this week. Hedge fund billionaire Daniel Loeb reportedly wrote to clients that he was positioning assets in his Third Point fund to reflect the “increased…likelihood” of a Trump victory, noting that Third Point was investing in assets that ” could benefit from such a scenario.” to Reuters. Rich Handler, the chief executive of investment bank Jefferies, wrote on social media that Loeb's assessment was “smart.”

Further reading

ForbesTrump vs. Harris polls 2024: Trump leads in Fox News poll – Harris is ahead in two other pollsFrom Sara Dorn
ForbesSwing state polls for the 2024 election: Trump leads in Georgia, Harris ahead in North Carolina (Update)From Sara Dorn