UFC 307: Preliminary Tips and Predictions

UFC 307 takes place this weekend at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City and the preliminary card is packed with contests – including a sleeper Fight of the Night contender in Joaquin Buckley vs. Stephen Thompson.

Here are my top preliminary UFC 307 predictions for Saturday, October 5th.

UFC 307 pre-picks and predictions

Potiera versus Almeida
• Prediction: Almeida ML (-400 at Bet99)
• Best bet: Almeida in R1 (+145 at Bet99)

Pennington vs. Esparza
• Prediction: Pennington ML (-175 at Bet99)
• Best bet: Pennington by decision (-120 at Bet99)

Buckley vs. Thompson
• Prediction: Buckley ML (-230 at Bet99)
• Best bet: Buckley by decision (+125 at Bet99)

Click on each fight for the full analysis.

UFC 307 prelim odds and picks

The fight odds between Ihor Potieria and Cesar Almeida

Method of victory	Potieria	Almeida
To win straight away	+280	-380
Win by KO/TKO	+500	-230
Win by decision	+1,100	+875
Winning through submission	+1,550	+1,100
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 10-3.

Cesar Almeida saw his hype train derailed when Roman Kopylov introduced the standout kickboxer to the world of MMA. Almeida couldn't handle Kopylov's wrestling and dropped a split decision that should have been unanimous.

He doesn't have to worry about that here because Ihor Potieria is the right person to make him look good.

Aside from the retired Mauricio Rua, Potieria hasn't shown much to prove he belongs in the UFC, and he's a rough-around-the-edges brawler who attacks recklessly in hopes of landing a big shot. He won't wrestle and is easy to hit.

As great as Almeida was at kickboxing, his ceiling in the UFC is admittedly low, but he is primed for a win. With Potieria constantly stepping forward, he will be an open book for Almeida. His inability to step back or defend sets him up for a short night in the octagon.

forecast: Almeida ML (-400 at Bet99)
Best bet: Almeida wins in round 1 (+145 at Bet99)

Tecia Pennington vs. Carla Esparza fight odds

Method of victory	Pennington	Esparza
To win straight away	-175	+140
Win by KO/TKO	+1,000	+850
Win by decision	-120	+200
Winning through submission	+1,200	+2,400
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 10-3.

When fighters announce their retirement – like Carla Esparza did here – it's usually an easy bet against them.

They often face an opponent who doesn't have enough weaknesses to exploit, or they're indifferent to the outcome, even though they know it's still their last fight.

Although Esparza won six straight times before losing to Zhang Weili last November, including victories over Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas, she will have to pull out all the stops against Pennington.

Pennington has solid takedown defense, is a high-volume striker with good movement, and probably should have gotten the win over Tabatha Ricci earlier in the year. After Esparza's firing and given the gravity of her decision to retire, I don't think she will be sharp enough to slow Pennington down.

forecast: Pennington Moneyline (-175 at Bet99)
Best bet: Pennington by decision (-120 at Bet99)

Joaquin Buckley vs. Stephen Thompson fight odds

Method of victory	Buckley	Thompson
To win straight away	-220	+175
Win by KO/TKO	+325	+575
Win by decision	+125	+320
Winning through submission	+850	+4,000
Pull	+2,500	+2,500

Odds from 10-3.

Joaquin Buckley is 4-0 since moving from middleweight to welterweight, and he looks every bit like a future title contender.

His striking and athleticism are excellent, and he has broken through his opponents while bidding for a high-profile fight, which he now receives against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.

Thompson is one of the best technical kickboxers in UFC history and can still perform well against the right opponent, but Buckley is not that opponent. Buckley's speed, size and ability to score takedowns will show the 41-year-old Thompson his age.

In Thompson's UFC career, he has only won one fight in which he was defeated – the fight against Kevin Holland – in which Holland allowed him to get back to his feet. Buckley is hungry and motivated to break into the welterweight elite, and he won't show the same courtesy when he knocks Thompson down.

“Wonderboy” had a good run, but Buckley is the choice.

forecast: Buckley Moneyline (-230 at Bet99)
Best bet: Buckley by decision (+125 at Bet99)

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