VGK fans should expect nothing less than a seventh postseason appearance

(Image credit: SinBin.vegas photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Tonight the Golden Knights host the newly formed Utah Hockey Club for their third preseason game in Las Vegas. In six game periods, there were predominantly positive signals in the first two televised fights. Sure enough for analysts across the league to call the Golden Knights an expected playoff team. Why shouldn't they? The 31st franchise has history on its side.

Since 2018, all eight Pacific Division teams have participated in at least one playoff series. Only the Golden Knights have missed the postseason once, while every other Pacific team has been on the outside in two or more seasons. Los Angeles has experienced the playoffs four times since 2018. Edmonton has made five straight postseasons and is likely on its way to a sixth. Vegas now has an 87.5% qualifying record and is the only Pacific Division team to win the Stanley Cup since VGK was founded.

Pacific Division playoff appearances since 2018

• VGK – 6: 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024
• EDM – 5: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024
• LAK – 4: 2018, 2022, 2023, 2024
• CAL – 3: 2019, 2020, 2022
• VAN – 2: 2019, 2024
• SJ – 2: 2018, 2019
• SEA – 1: 2023
• ANA: 1: 2018

Considering that Anaheim and San Jose are probably still seasons away from challenging for the division title, that leaves three guaranteed playoff spots for five Pacific teams. Realistically, Vegas is in a better position to qualify for the postseason than Calgary and Seattle, both of which regressed in 2023-24. The bottom line is that the historical averages are for VGK to reach a playoff position and fight for the division. While the Flames and Kraken are expected to finish 17 points fewer than the Golden Knights this season.

Mark Stone: “I still like our team. Another year, another batch of Golden Knights articles.”

— Danny Webster (@DannyWebster21) September 3, 2024

Late in the offseason, Vegas captain Mark Stone hinted to local reporter Danny Webster that he plans to prove the doubters wrong this season. Many, including me, couldn't help but laugh and look around the room for these so-called critics. Luckily he doesn't read articles from Anaheim, Calgary, LA or Seattle.

Is someone writing fake articles and posting them all over the Golden Knights locker room about how this year is going to be terrible? I don't know a single person who thinks the Golden Knights are bad. They're going to be really good and everyone knows they're going to be bad. Not again. I haven't seen an article that thinks the Knights will be terrible. –Elliotte Friedman on the 32 Thoughts Podcast

Currently, the Golden Knights have the 10th lowest odds (+2000) to win the 2024-25 Stanley Cup on the William Hill Sports app. Vegas is the Western Conference winner behind only Edmonton, Dallas, Colorado and Nashville and second to the Pacific Division crown. According to handicappers and bettors, the Golden Knights have a real chance of winning a second Stanley Cup trophy this season.

To go even deeper, the expected data assumes Vegas is in the playoffs and fighting for the division. Most models place the Golden Knights somewhere between 97 and 100 points, which has historically been enough to reach the postseason even in the most competitive years.

Another factor that should make VGK's top winger happy is the average time it takes a Pacific team to secure a playoff spot after missing out the previous season. Anaheim has missed the last six games and San Jose hasn't played more than 82 games in five years. Calgary and Seattle could be on their way to a postseason drought themselves. Overall, Pacific Division teams need 3.3 seasons between playoff appearances. Hopefully this will cool Stone's comeuppance a bit.

Now it's time to uncover the numerous Golden Knights pessimists who haven't been found yet.