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What are the current betting odds for the presidential election?

ByVanessa

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What are the current betting odds for the presidential election?

Offshore bettors continue to increase the odds that former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election because they predict he has a better chance of winning battleground states like Pennsylvania.

As of 3 p.m. ET Wednesday, Trump's probability of winning on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, is just under 59% for the first time since President Joe Biden left the race. Betfair Exchange, the UK's largest peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted on its temperature gauge on Wednesday morning that Trump was likely to win. Betting on the presidential election is not legal in the USA

National polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics still show a much less emphatic picture: Vice President Kamala Harris has led by nearly two percentage points since the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, but Harris has been leading in battleground states throughout October just back.

Who is ahead in the presidential race? The polls and ratings change. What they say now

Trump's chances of winning increase as his lead in the battleground polls grows

Can't see our graphics? Click here to see them.

So are bettors seeing something that pollsters aren't? Polymarket warned in its weekly “Oracle” newsletter on Tuesday that big differences in betting markets do not equate to big margins in the polls:

“While Trump's lead is the largest since the summer, its significance cannot be overstated. A market lead of 55 to 45 predicted is nowhere near as strong as a five-point lead in the polls,” the newsletter says. “Small movements in the polls are escalated into large fluctuations in the ratings.”

In Pennsylvania, Trump's chances are increasing, but in the polls the chances are close

It's no surprise that Pennsylvania, the largest of the Real Clear Politics states with 19 electoral votes, was frequently visited by both campaigns. So when bettors see Pennsylvania polls leaning toward Trump, they dramatically increase his chances of winning the state.

“Pennsylvania is the tipping point,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said Thursday. The independent economic consulting firm sees narrow paths to victory for both candidates, and every path leads through Pennsylvania.

“It’s an extremely, extremely close race,” Yaros said. “We’re talking about margins of just tens of thousands of votes.”

Do you want to vote for Trump or Harris? Your registration deadline could be just days away. View all states' deadlines.

How Trump could win Pennsylvania

In one scenario, Oxford Economics looked at each of Pennsylvania's 67 counties and estimated how many votes each would add to Trump's or Harris's vote margin. In a state with about 13 million residents, the consulting firm predicts that, oddly enough, 19,101 votes could tip the balance in Pennsylvania and elect Trump.

According to surveys, in which states are there still uncertainties?

Real Clear Politics analysis shows 104 electoral votes in nine states remain uncertain. However, if the election were based on current polls in these states, Trump and Ohio Senator JD Vance would easily surpass the required 270 Electoral College votes.

Not surprisingly, offshore bettors on Polymarket in these controversial states are also putting their money on Trump. Still, the probability of Trump winning one of the closest races remains less than 60%.

Trump and Harris' probability of winning each state

Bettors rate Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous elections

Although the bets on Trump and Harris have diverged significantly in recent days, they are a far cry from where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. As of July 16, his odds of winning on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange were over 70%.

As of 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Trump had a 17 percentage point lead over Harris at Polymarket. The Betfair Exchange market had a gap of 17 points. According to Betfair's historical data, the gap between candidates remains the narrowest of Trump's three elections. On October 16, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 65% chance of winning.

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866. Markets failed to predict Trump's victory in 2016. The only other time: 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat the odds of defeating Republican Thomas Dewey by 8 to 1.

Contributor: James Powel

By Vanessa

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