What early voting looks like a week before Election Day

More than 48 million people have cast ballots since nationwide early voting began ahead of next week's election.

According to the University of Florida Election Lab's early voter tracker, 48,654,272 people have cast their ballots early so far, more than 25.2 million of them in person, while 23.4 million people have cast their ballots by absentee ballot. According to the tracker, more than 66.4 million mail-in ballots have been requested.

Some form of early voting is possible in 48 states. Alabama and Mississippi are the only states without universal early voting where voters need an approved reason to vote by mail.

In the 2020 election, 70 percent of voters used alternatives to in-person voting, a significant increase from 40 percent in 2016. The increase was due to states temporarily expanding voting options to address concerns related to the pandemic.

This year, enthusiasm for early voting still appears to be high. North Carolina and Georgia reported record levels of early voting this month, with 3.1 million and 3 million people voting early in the two states, respectively.

According to Jon Parker, lecturer in American studies at Keele University, the presidential election between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump will ultimately come down to who gets to vote by November 5th.

“This election is very close and will depend on turnout and which voters are most engaged on Election Day,” Parker said Newsweek.

Overall, early voting trends suggest an advantage for Democrats, who generally vote by mail earlier and more often than Republicans. The University of Florida tracker shows that more Democrats have voted early than GOP supporters so far: More than 9.2 million registered Democrats have voted, compared to 8.5 million Republicans.

But some early data shows the number of Republicans voting early this year is rising sharply, particularly in swing states, after Trump encouraged his supporters to vote before Election Day.

“I urge everyone to vote early,” Trump said this month in a podcast hosted by former Fox News host Dan Bongino.

And Republicans appear to be responding. In Nevada, where Democrats typically rely on early voting to counteract Republican turnout, data from the University of Florida show that about 38,000 more Republicans voted early than Democrats. In Arizona, where more than 1.4 million votes have already been cast, Republicans represent 42 percent of those votes, while Democrats account for 35 percent, according to tracking data. North Carolina has a narrower gap: 34 percent of early voters were registered as Republicans and 33 percent as Democrats.

While Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin do not track party registration for early voters, Pennsylvania reports that 58 percent of its more than 1.4 million early voters are Democrats, compared to 31 percent of Republicans.

Although Republicans are seeing an increase in early voting, it is unclear what this means for the election. Early voting data only provides information about whether voters are registered with a party, not who they are voting for.

Additionally, voter registration data shows that most early voters are female and over 65, with 41 percent of early voters nationwide being in the 65+ group and 54 percent being female. While women are more likely than men to vote Democratic, older voters are historically more likely to be Republican than younger voters, meaning results for both parties can change closer to Election Day.

Of the swing states that collect demographic data, Michigan and Georgia had the highest proportion of female early voters, with 55 percent of voters in each state identifying as women. Pennsylvania had the highest proportion of early voters over 65, with 49 percent coming from the oldest age group. In North Carolina and Georgia, more voters in the 41-65 age group voted early than voters 65 and older.

But early voting data also shows that the number of black voters is lower early than in previous years, which could indicate that turnout is lower among the demographic and could hurt Democrats. In Georgia, for example, where black voters make up a third of the eligible electorate, non-Hispanic black voters make up just 26 percent of absentee and early votes cast. In comparison, they received 29 percent of the vote in 2020 and 30 percent in 2022.

Polls show Trump with a 1.5-point lead in Georgia – within the margin of error – while he has narrow leads in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada, according to 538. The pollster also shows Harris leading in Michigan. while the two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.