What happens next after the shocking Conservative vote?

The shock over the elimination of James Cleverly was almost universal.

Not only had he failed to muster the handful of additional votes to make it to the final two, he had actually fallen behind.

How on earth did this happen?

When it comes to a secret vote, theories vary, but misbehavior inspires more credibility than conspiracy among the various campaigns.

Some suggest that some Conservative MPs decided that Cleverly was home and sober and that they could therefore afford to vote for someone else in the hope that this would contribute to the elimination of the candidate they actually supported didn't want to make it to the runoff.

Others say the other two campaigns were simply more effective and persuasive when it really mattered.

Who knows.

And to be honest: it doesn't matter anymore.

The final couple is decided and it's Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, not either/or.

Short political labels for members of a political party are often not enough to convey the subtlety of their views – but those who see themselves as centrist or to the left of the conservatives have no standard bearer to choose from.

They express disappointment that there isn't a wider range of choices in the final two candidates, made up of two candidates who see themselves as being on the right of the party.

Robert Jenrick has moved to the right since becoming an MP, his experiences in government changing him on issues such as immigration.

Kemi Badenoch is seen by her supporters as nothing less than a potential star: combative in the articulation of her conservatism, willing to say what others would not.

But even her supporters admit that, as one told me, she is still a work in progress and more susceptible to moments of word of mouth as well as triumph.

This race is now changing gears.

It is a new election with a new electorate.

No longer just the 121 Conservative MPs, but tens of thousands of Tory party members across the UK.

Team Jenrick sees themselves as challengers, as underdogs.

And her strategy seems to take this into account: to challenge Kemi Badenoch to debate her at any time, any place, any place.

Jenrick will come straight out of the gate with a speech in Westminster on Thursday.

Team Badenoch points to being at the top of the MP election and polls suggest she is consistently the most popular potential leader among party members.

She will begin this next phase of her campaign alongside an aspiring Tory councilor who is running in a council by-election on the outskirts of London.

It may sound conservative, but remember who the electorate is: members of the Conservative Party, just like this council candidate.

We can expect both candidates to focus intently on the issues that party members care about and try to hit as many of them as possible.

Yes, there will be a nod to the wider electorate, a desire to demonstrate the ability to win a general election, but those who have a voice in this contest are the ones who wield power now.

Ballots will be mailed in the coming days and party members will have just over two weeks to vote on paper or online.

And then, three weeks later, on Saturday November 2nd, Rishi Sunak's successor will be announced.

This point marks the end of the post-election period in British politics.

By then the government will have presented its first budget and a new opposition leader will be in office.

The political landscape of the coming years will have taken shape.