What La Niña means for Middle Tennessee

Temperatures are cooling in Nashville, signaling the chilly return of the winter season. Despite the cold temperatures and frost, Tennesseans can expect a slightly warmer than average winter through the latter part of 2024 and into January and February 2025.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Tennesseans can expect above-average temperatures and precipitation from December through February. The forecast predicts a 33-40 percent chance of above-average temperatures for Middle Tennessee and a 33-40 percent chance of above-average precipitation for some areas of the region.

The warmer than normal conditions can be attributed to La Niña, the climate pattern that causes periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures. La Niña was predicted to occur during November and is expected to last until March 2025.

What conditions can Nashville expect this winter? What NOAA predicts

Nashville and the Middle Tennessee region have a 33-40% chance of above-average temperatures and about the average precipitation seen in some areas of the region.

Here are the averages for Nashville from December to February, according to the National Weather Service:

December: average high of 52, average low of 33 and an average rainfall of 4.43 inches
January: average high of 49, average low of 30 and an average rainfall of 4 inches
February: average high of 54, average low of 33 and an average rainfall of 4.47 inches

What is La Nina?

According to NOAA, winds are stronger than usual during La Niña events, pushing more warm water into Asia. Off the west coast of America, buoyancy increases and brings cold water to the surface. The cold water in the Pacific then pushes the jet stream north, which tends to cause drought in the southern United States.

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north. La Niña could also lead to a more severe hurricane season, NOAA added.

How will La Niña affect Tennessee? Will it snow?

Low pressure systems generally move north of the area during La Niña conditions, which often keeps Tennessee within the range of warmer temperatures, providing the fuel for thunderstorms, National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Husted previously told the Tennessean.

The Volunteer State is less likely to experience a major winter event such as snow or ice, but extreme winter events can never be ruled out. For example, the La Niña winters of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 both experienced above-normal temperatures but still brought a “significant” cold snap, Husted added.

Based on previous snowfall events, Music City prefers normal (4.7 inches) and below-average snowfall during the La Niña winter.

The winters of 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023 were all La Niña winters and received 5.2 inches of snow (near normal), 9.5 inches of snow (above normal), and 1.2 inches of snow ( below normal). , respectively.

El Niño vs. La Niña: What's the difference?

El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can impact weather, wildfires, ecosystems and the economy. Experts refer to the systems as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

Episodes of El Niño and La Niña can last nine to 12 months, but sometimes years, the National Ocean Service said. Both patterns occur on average every two to seven years, but not regularly.

According to the National Ocean Service, El Niño is more common than La Niña. While El Niño refers to the warming of sea surface temperatures, La Niña refers to the cooling of sea surface temperatures.

When is the first day of winter?

Meteorologically speaking, winter begins on December 1st. However, according to the Farmer's Almanac, the winter solstice, which falls on Saturday, December 21, is for many the first true day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

The first day of winter is Saturday, December 21, 2024 at 3:21 a.m. local time. According to the Farmers Almanac, this is also the shortest day of the year but the longest night.

Contributor: Joyce Orlando

Diana Leyva covers breaking news and service journalism for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or follow her on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @_leyvadiana

What La Niña means for Middle Tennessee

ByVanessa

What conditions can Nashville expect this winter? What NOAA predicts

What is La Nina?

How will La Niña affect Tennessee? Will it snow?

El Niño vs. La Niña: What's the difference?

When is the first day of winter?

By Vanessa

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