What we know about the mystery trader betting big on a Trump win

A mysterious online retailer is betting big on former President Donald Trump beating Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.

Trump and Harris are in a tight race with less than three weeks until Election Day. Polls show that the two candidates have only a tiny gap between them in the battleground states. But online betting markets, where individuals bet millions of real dollars on the results of the presidential campaign, have shifted toward Trump in recent days.

Polymarket, one of the leading political betting markets based abroad and partly funded by Peter Thiel, on Wednesday gave Trump about a 60 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris had a 40 percent chance of winning . Betting odds fluctuated throughout the election and are subject to change based on current events and polls that could affect the outcome of the race.

But one trader appears to be influencing the market by betting millions of dollars on a Trump victory.

As of late Tuesday, the trader, known only as Fredi9999, had bought more than 15 million shares worth $8.7 million, betting that Trump would win the election.

They also bought more than 3 million shares betting that Trump would win the popular vote and nearly 1.5 million shares betting that Trump would win Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state seen as the most likely tipping point of this cycle. In total, Fredi9999's position on the platform is valued at more than $14 million.

Who that trader might be and why he might be betting so heavily on the presidential election remains unknown. Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that is largely outside the reach of US regulators and whose users are anonymous. Fredi9999's profile provides few details about their identity, only that they joined the platform in June 2024. Just on Wednesday morning, they added to their positions in bets of about $500.

Laura Beers, a history professor and political betting expert at American University, recounted Newsweek There are numerous reasons why an anonymous trader would bet so much money on a Trump victory. For example, there is historical precedent for the idea of ​​betting on politics being used “as a hedge.”

“If Fredi9999 has business interests that stand to lose from a Trump victory, they could bet on it to offset those potential future losses,” she said. “There is evidence that British bettors used election markets in this way in the early 20th century.”

However, she noted that the trader “engaged in significant in-and-out transactions,” suggesting that he “may have been trying to profit from market manipulation of his own devising or that he simply wanted to benefit from what he saw as an advantage.” temporary market shifts.

The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission has previously warned of the possibility of manipulation in betting markets, which until recently were illegal in the United States.

The dealer could also try to influence the election by shifting betting odds in Trump's favor, she said.

“It's unclear whether this would help Trump by making him appear successful or whether it would embolden Kamala supporters who fear markets are portraying her as an outsider,” she said.

The trader's big bets have shifted the market toward Trump, economics professor Rajiv Sethi wrote in a recent Substack post. On October 7, the volume of contracts traded on Polymarket led to an increase in Trump's odds without any obvious news events.

He suggested that the trader was using a “very special strategy” in which he “places large limit buy orders slightly above the current best bid, effectively setting a floor on the price of the Trump contract.”

“This could be someone with deep pockets who firmly believes that Trump will win the Rust Belt and therefore the election, and who wants to accumulate a large number of contracts at seemingly cheap prices,” Sethi wrote on October 9th.

The dealer could even be a consortium of individuals, he wrote.

He continued: “Alternatively, it could be someone who wants to influence the price and create the impression that Trump has better prospects than the market otherwise suggests, in the expectation that this will boost morale and increase donations and Volunteer work keeps things going.”

He warned that these two scenarios would threaten the integrity of Polymarket's forecast accuracy. He pointed out that it could also be someone who has information that he believes would influence the outcome of the race.

Kalshi, a separate betting market that is regulated and open to US traders, gives Trump a slightly lower chance of winning (55 percent versus 45 percent for Harris).

Forbes reported that Trump's betting odds also skyrocketed after Elon Musk, the CEO of companies like Tesla and X, gave his endorsement to Polymarket.

Whoever Fredi9999 is, the trader's optimism extends not just to Trump, but to other Republican figures as well. They also made deals supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, although both had already ended their presidential campaigns when the profile was created.

While the betting markets give Trump a narrow lead, polls still suggest a close race. FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed Harris leading Trump by an average of 2.4 points on Tuesday. A month earlier, on September 15, Harris was up 2.6 points overall.

Newsweek I emailed Polymarket for comment.