When is it time for the 49ers to move on?

Kyle Shanahan is the gift and the curse. He led the 49ers to two Super Bowls in five years, but fell short after blowing the lead in the fourth quarter. Now the team's Super Bowl window is closing, sparking debate about whether it's time for Shanahan to move on.

The generation difference

If you've been a 49ers fan since 1995 or later, live in the trendy neighborhood of The Faithful. Shanahan is the best coach you know. Based on what you experienced, he defined your standard: frequent arguments in the mix. What you fear is his firing and a return to the bad old days of Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly. Why would you fire the man who has brought you the greatest success in the last 30 years?

Fans who have followed the team since 1994 or earlier come from Old Town. They have seen at least one championship live, many have seen all five. The Hip District is 0-3 in the Super Bowl, Old Town is 5-0.

Residents have seen what a title requires of a coach, an offensive coordinator and a GM. They know Bill Walsh is better than Shanahan, especially as GM alongside John McVay. Old Town's standard is ring or bust, it depends on what they've experienced. Their emotions are frustration at not having received a ring in 30 years and the growing conviction that Shanahan will not deliver a ring.

My advice is to put yourself in the shoes of the other neighborhood to understand this from both sides. For Old Town, it's not about hating Shanahan, it's about not believing in him. They have seen far better leadership and decision making from Bill Walsh. They believe Shanahan has fatal flaws that prevent a ring. In my case, this focuses more on Shanahan, the de facto GM, than the coach.

I believe Shanahan will insist on remaining the Niners' holy trinity (coach, OC, GM), which means if I want a new GM, Shanahan will have to go.

For the Hip District, the distrust of those in charge of hiring the right coaches is justified given its track record of more failures than successes.

Shanahan's success has raised the team's profile. The 49ers used to settle for coaches from NFL Europe, but now they deserve a visit from the top candidates. Shanahan ironically made it easier to get away from him.

Steve Young, the mayor and conscience of Old Town, put it bluntly in a recent comment. “We have to find a way to win a championship. No department. Don’t hang around.”

Can Shanahan deliver a ring?

That's the essence of it. According to Hip District, the Niners will win the final Super Bowl if Dre Greenlaw doesn't get injured. Old Town says Shanahan using the offensive line right of Trent Williams as a cap saving center, combined with rare early picks on the OL, makes the line too weak for Bling. A Super Bowl defeat is enshrined in the cake.

The conclusion you draw is based on your belief in Shanahan, or lack thereof. Those who believe say it brings bad luck, keep knocking on the door and eventually get through. Those who don't say it's been eight years and the opportunities are dwindling are citing Shanahan's failures as GM and his stubborn refusal to learn and change.

There is truth in both perspectives. The Niners were a bit unlucky, the weak OL is a direct result of Shanahan's decisions and it won't change. Receiving the best OL draft in 15 years, he chose arms again in the first round.

How will the Niners' fortunes change if Shanahan refuses to change or take responsibility?

Shanahan and Walsh

Beyond the rings and attention to detail in all three phases. Diploma. Shanahan is 0-40 in his career in all roles when trailing by 8 points or more in the fourth game, a recent statistic from AP's Josh Dubow. When Walsh lost 35-7 to New Orleans in 1980 and advanced to the quarterfinals at 14, the Niners celebrated what was then the greatest comeback in NFL history, the game in which Joe Montana made his first appearance, winning 38-35 in overtime won.

Shanahan trades three #1s and a third to Trey Lance. Walsh trades a second and a fourth for Steve Young.

This isn't meant to be mean, just to prove he's better than Shanahan, especially at GM. Yes, there is some risk, but it's time. Messages and messengers are becoming outdated and approaches are failing. Don't wait for appearances, go for the best talent when it's available.

The opportunity

Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is expected to take a head coaching position this offseason. He resembles Shanahan circa 2017 as a respected young offensive mind.

Coaching candidates are like the draft, there are some years with hot prospects and others with makeovers. Keeping Shanahan for another year means no Johnson. I agree with Walsh: It's better to move on a year too early than a year too late.

After the Super Bowl loss, the Niners have lost some of their cohesion, feeling more like a collection of independent contractors than a team. If you miss the playoffs this year, it will continue to be that way as a championship becomes more and more distant.

I don't think Shanahan will win a ring this year, next year or any other year. In my opinion, his set-in-stone decisions as de facto GM prevent this from happening. Many will disagree, including Jed York. I expect Shanahan to stay regardless of what happens this year. I don't think this is the right decision, but I'm from the old town.