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Why Tampa Bay was spared from Hurricane Milton's massive storm surge


Water levels in Tampa Bay returned to normal Thursday. The area experienced a “reverse storm surge” that pushed water away from the shore.

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Waters in Tampa Bay returned to normal Thursday morning following the passage of Hurricane Milton, which briefly caused a “reverse storm surge” in the bay.

National Weather Service meteorologist Tyler Fleming confirmed to USA TODAY that Tampa Bay appeared to be spared the massive storm surge feared and instead experienced a reverse storm surge that pushed water away from the coast.

The state Division of Emergency Management warned residents in a social media post Wednesday evening to avoid going into receding water because “water will flow back from storm surge, posing a life-threatening risk.”

But on Thursday morning everything was clear. Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Shiveley confirmed to USA TODAY that the water in the bay had “returned to normal levels.”

Why was Tampa spared?

Storms that make landfall south of Tampa typically mean less storm surge for Tampa.

With Milton roaring ashore just over 20 miles south with its center of distribution, particularly vulnerable Tampa Bay narrowly averted the most catastrophic storm surge.

While water rose higher at tide gauges along the coast south of Siesta Key and Sarasota as Milton made landfall Wednesday, levels around the bay plummeted.

Tampa was “very, very lucky”

Tampa Bay itself was again spared the worst of the storm surge, said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. Tampa's remarkable track record of avoiding a direct hit from a major hurricane continues with Milton.

The city has not been directly hit since 1921.

DaSilva said there is no geographic or topographical reason – or even a meteorological reason – for Tampa's streak. “They were very, very lucky,” he said.

Shakes and shakes

Milton's final landfall occurred directly within the hurricane center's “cone of uncertainty.”

As predicted, small fluctuations and last-minute fluctuations in Milton's path can make a big difference in where it makes landfall and therefore where the worst of the storm surge occurs, Da Silva said.

“Luckily for Tampa, it hit to the south, near Sarasota,” he said.

What is a reverse storm surge?

A storm surge occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane pushes water toward the coast, causing catastrophic flooding along the coast and in bays and bays.

It happened in Florida during Hurricanes Irma and Ian, said WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut.

During reverse storm surge, particularly larger storms, the opposite happens, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said after Hurricane Ian. “It can pull the water out because the wind comes from the land to the sea and pushes the water,” he said. “The power of the wind is incredible.”

The result, according to Pastelok, is barren terrain in some places, particularly along the coast.

The phenomenon can occur with any hurricane, whether it makes landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Gulf, according to the National Weather Service's Tampa Bay area office.

Why does a reverse storm surge occur?

Storm surges can occur near and to the right of where a storm makes landfall, but negative water levels can occur to the left of where a storm makes landfall, weather service meteorologist Ernie Jillson said. Tampa Bay was to the left of where Ian made landfall because the wind was blowing from the northeast, he said.

And it appears to have happened again at Milton on Wednesday.

It depends on the shape of the waterway and bays are more vulnerable because they are like a bowl of water,” Jillson told USA TODAY. “They are protected by land on all but one side, which is why they are so vulnerable to depletion.”

According to Pastelok, how dramatic the phenomenon appears depends on the intensity of the storm.

(This story has been updated with new information.)

By Vanessa

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