With half of the NASCAR playoff field gone, only heavyweights remain

The feel-good stories and underdogs are gone – they were eliminated in the first two rounds. Even Alex Bowman, who went from fourth rider at HMS to one of the strongest playoff riders, is now out after an unfortunate DQ. Half of the eight remaining title contenders are former cup winners. In fact, every champion from the last four seasons is still in contention, and all four Championship 4 drivers from last year are also left. There are no weak links, which should make for an exciting and dramatic round of 8 as four of them will see their title hopes dashed while the other four move on to Phoenix.

At the top of the standings is Kyle Larson, the clear championship favorite. He has more wins, more top-five finishes and more laps led than anyone else this season. There's really nothing left to say about him other than he's “that guy” until one of the others proves otherwise, but there are plenty who could.

Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Rusty Jarrett / NKP / Motorsport Images

For example, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott. NASCAR's most popular driver and 2020 series champion has only one win this year, but he leads the entire field with the best average finish (11.7). He has been absolutely consistent, always present in the front half of the field and will probably cause a stir in the coming races. After a dismal 2023 in which a broken leg derailed his entire year, he has carefully navigated the chaos and unpredictability of this year's championship without ever really feeling the pressure of elimination. He even made the Round of 12 cut-off race on the bubble, but was never really part of that exciting storyline as he quickly racked up a mountain of stage points.

Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, Kelley Blue Book Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

The only two-time Cup winner in the Round of 8 is a bit of a surprise considering they failed to take the checkered flag last weekend. Bowman's disqualification nearly three hours later paved the way for his return to the playoffs. Joey Logano, who won the title in 2018 and 2022, is one of only two drivers to have won multiple titles in this volatile playoff format. Team Penske is also aiming for a third straight Cup title in the Next Gen era, but despite Logano's resume, he has actually performed worse compared to recent seasons. Still, he's shown the ability to step up when the moment calls for it, and that's nothing new for Logano. He is probably the most aggressive driver still in the title fight, having won at all four tracks ending the 2024 season.

Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Then there's his Penske teammate and reigning champion Ryan Blaney. Despite scoring just one point in the Round of 16 at Watkins Glen and crashing heavily at Talladega, finishing a season-worst 39th, he remains in contention. Like Logano, he knows how to step up when the pressure is on. In every other playoff race he scored between 33 and 53 points per race. No driver has ever won back-to-back championships in this knockout format, but the spirited No. 12 driver could do it.

Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, Discount Tire Ford Mustang

Photo by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Images

So half of the remaining title contenders have already won championships, including the last four from 2020 to 2023. They're here for a reason, but the challengers who haven't won the Bill France Cup yet are just as competitive.

There's Denny Hamlin, for example, despite a rather rocky playoff run so far. He's also currently busy with a contentious lawsuit against NASCAR involving the team he co-owns, but as a driver he's the most successful racer of all time to have yet to win a Cup title. Three Daytona 500 victories, 54 Cup victories and five consecutive seasons with a fifth or higher finish in the final standings. He has never missed the playoffs since this format was introduced in 2014 and is perhaps the hungriest rider here. We've seen him put his good friend Larson in his place over wins, we've seen him get into physical altercations with Logano (more than once), and he thrives on boos from fans every time he wins . That's exactly the kind of driver you want for this round, which is more of a battleground than a stock car race. He will do whatever it takes to break through that glass ceiling and become a champion.

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, FedEx One Rate Toyota Camry

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

And what about the third Hendrick driver who advances? William Byron started the year by winning three of the first eight races, including the Daytona 500. However, we haven't seen him in Victory Lane since April. But the driver of the number 24 seems to find his footing just in time before the home straight. He achieved three consecutive podium finishes in the Round of 12 and collected so many points that he didn't even need to win to qualify early for this round. It would be foolish to ignore him.

William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports, Valvoline Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: John Harrelson / NKP / Motorsport Images

Tyler Reddick is perhaps the most interesting driver on this list. 23XI Racing never made it past the round of 8, and neither did Reddick. Of course, the lawsuit also hangs over them. Reddick rode like a champion at Roval, tearing through the field on fresh tires in the final laps, erasing the double-digit point deficit and narrowly avoiding elimination. Some may be quick to ignore him, but we should remember that this driver won the regular season championship. He's relied heavily on those bonus points in the difficult playoffs, but this is a driver who has just shown the world that he can get everything and more out of the car when his back is against the wall. After that late charge at the Roval, he has already proven he has what it takes to win the championship.

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing, Monster Energy Toyota Camry Justin Haley, Spire Motorsports, Mattress Warehouse Chevrolet Camaro Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports, UniFirst Chevrolet Camaro Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang

Photo by: Danny Hansen / NKP / Motorsport Images

So that’s it – wait, aren’t we missing someone? Oh right…Christopher Bell! As he himself will tell you, everyone always overlooks the driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. And there's really no good reason for it. He is quiet and makes little noise on the track, but he is always a competitor. Bell is the only driver to make it to Championship 4 in both years of the Next Gen era. He also finished seventh or better in seven of the last eight races – the only worse result was 14th. He's consistent, omnipresent and a very legitimate threat to the title. Before the playoffs, this writer picked him to win for all the reasons we just discussed. He is the “silent assassin” of NASCAR. People always wonder where Bell comes from when the big prize is in sight, but he's always been right there, but no one – including his rivals – seems to notice until it's too late.

Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, DEWALT Toyota Camry

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images