WNBA Finals 2024: Predictions, Keys for Liberty vs. Lynx

And then there were two.

The No. 1 seed New York Liberty and No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx will compete for the 2024 championship in a best-of-five WNBA finals that begins Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) with Game 1 in Brooklyn begins.

Both teams reach the final with a different story. The Liberty, one of the league's original franchises, are still searching for their first title with last year's finals loss still fresh in their minds.

The Lynx have been one of the sport's most storied dynasties, having won four championships between 2011 and 2017 – the latter of which was also the last time they appeared in a Finals series until this season.

Led by Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, New York was widely expected to return for the second year of its superteam formation. Minnesota? Not quite. The Lynx were 19-21 in 2023 and were not picked as a contender before this season. But after a career year from MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, Minnesota has proven it belongs on the WNBA's biggest stage.

Minnesota needed Game 5 to beat the Connecticut Sun in the semifinals, but it's fitting that the Lynx and Liberty will face off in the finals. They were the top two teams in the standings and met in the 2024 Commissioner's Cup championship game in late June.

ESPN explains what you should know about each team and what to expect from the championship series.

(1) New York Liberty vs. (2) Minnesota Lynx

Regular season series: Minnesota went 3-1, including the Commissioner's Cup championship game

New York in the playoffs: Defeated Atlanta Dream 2-0 in first round; defeated the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces 3-1 in the semifinals

Minnesota in the playoffs: defeated Phoenix Mercury 2-0 in the first round; defeated Connecticut Sun 3-2 in the semifinals

How New York got here: After a stellar 2023, the team's first season after signing Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot in free agency, New York has retooled its bench to add more defense and length, and most notably, 24-year-old rookie Leonie Fiebich signed from Germany (which starts now instead of Vandersloot). Thanks to improved chemistry among their returnees, the Liberty finished with a league-best record of 32-8 and never lost consecutive games at any point this year. — Philippou

How Minnesota got here: The Lynx made major changes in the offseason, bringing in Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith in free agency and trading for Natisha Hiedeman. Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton also had strong seasons. Collier was Defensive Player of the Year and took second place as MVP. Minnesota's only rough patch came before the Olympic break, when Collier struggled with plantar fasciitis. — Voepel

How they fit together: There's a reason these teams took the top two spots in the standings: They were the only teams to finish in the top four in both offensive and defensive rating this season, with the Lynx slightly behind the Liberty defensively , but New York had the better numbers offensively. Both teams rely on ball sharing and 3-point shooting, but the Liberty also have the tandem of 6-foot-4 Stewart and 6-6 Jones who can get it done inside.

There's plenty of star power: Stewart and Jones are former MVPs, Collier is the 2024 runner-up. Ionescu, McBride and Williams play like three of the best guards in the league. Rotations tend to get shorter in the postseason, but Liberty coach Sandy Brondello and Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve have depth, with nine players on each team averaging at least 12 minutes per game on the season. — Philippou

What will impact the series the most: How much the Liberty are able to win with Stewart and Jones could be the key to the series. It won't be easy; Minnesota got even stronger on August 20 with the addition of forward Myisha Hines-Allen. Stewart had perhaps her best playoff game with 19 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 blocks as New York defeated Las Vegas Sunday. But her UConn colleague Collier — they played together for the Huskies in the 2015-16 championship season — was the most impressive player of the playoffs. Tuesday was Collier's 16th postseason game of his WNBA career and her third with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds. — Voepel

New York will win it all if… Ionescu continues to play like the best guard in the league. The former Oregon Ducks star is hungry to win her first championship after not getting a chance to compete for the NCAA title her senior year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After a slump when play resumed after the Olympics, she was the Liberty's leading scorer in the postseason, averaging 20.7 PPG on 48.9% shooting (46.5% from 3-pointers). ), as well as 5.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. — Philippou

Minnesota will win it all if… Collier is holding his own in the postseason as strong as he has been, and when Minnesota's 3-point shooting is on point. The Lynx led the WNBA in assists during the regular season; They move the ball incredibly well and diffuse even the best defense. They posted a regular season best shooting percentage from behind the arc of 38% and the Liberty are not lacking in confidence. Nor should they, considering their success against New York this season. — Voepel

Which team will win the title and why:

Philippou: Freedom in 5. New York will win because it has the hunger, focus and experience from last year's final loss – plus home advantage – to finally get the job done.

Voepel: Lynx in 5. Minnesota is the number 2 seed, but was the better team in a direct duel with New York. The Lynx have been very consistent and cohesive all season and can add the league title to their Commissioner's Cup championship come June.